Polymarket Trader

bayc4746

0xde9f4ca6d5fc91c9d991b31b961b5aab629bcd36

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.23K
Realized PnL: $3.45K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 9
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

SpaceX position

SpaceX or OpenAI higher IPO Market Cap?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 88.7%
Current value: $834.2
Potential payout: $941
Potential profit: $106.8
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $314.76

OpenAI position

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $178.75
Potential payout: $715
Potential profit: $536.25
Multiplier: 4.00x
User PnL: -$64.35

No position

Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $61.1
Potential payout: $188
Potential profit: $126.9
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: $36.66

No position

Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.7%
Current value: $131.9
Potential payout: $135
Potential profit: $3.1
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $65.75

No position

Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 65%
Current value: $22.1
Potential payout: $34
Potential profit: $11.9
Multiplier: 1.54x
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Will Ethena reach $0.32 by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $3.88
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $21.13
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: $1.13

No position

Will Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 28.5%
Current value: $1.14
Potential payout: $4
Potential profit: $2.86
Multiplier: 3.51x
User PnL: -$0.58

Yes position

Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $2
Potential profit: $1.89
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.01

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Artemis II launch by February 28?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $600.71

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 3, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $229.36

Over position

Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 143.5

Ends Jan 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.61

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on March 5, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $199.68

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $196.47

Yes position

Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 31 be less than 2,000,000?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $167.44

Penn State Nittany Lions position

Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Akron Zips

Ends Nov 12, 2025

Implied probability: 50%
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $144.13

Southern Jaguars position

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguars

Ends Jan 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $142.4

Yes position

Will "Data Center" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $132.19

Yes position

Will "Davos" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $129.36

No position

Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $124.7

No position

Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104.44

Under position

Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5

Ends Jan 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $104

Yes position

Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $102.1

Yes position

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $99.68

Eastern Illinois Panthers position

Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $98.69

No position

Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $96.64

No position

Will Melania say "First Lady" during Fostering the Future Together event on March 24?

Ends Mar 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $94.5

Yes position

Will James Talarico win the Texas Democratic Senate Primary by between 5% and 10.00%?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.62

No position

Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?

Ends Jan 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.6

No position

Will there be at least 650 measles cases in the U.S. by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $83.07

No position

Will Blackburn Rovers FC vs. Sheffield Wednesday FC end in a draw?

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.27

No position

Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.77

No position

Will Allstate run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.78

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No 16% 110 shares
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No 16% 18 shares
Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

No 23% 187 shares
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No 17% 138 shares
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

No 10% 825 shares
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

No 10% 468 shares
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No 16% 153 shares
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No 16% 170 shares
Will Iran strike Lebanon by April 30, 2026?

No 94.1% 788 shares
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No 16% 72 shares
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

No 63% 34 shares
Will "Thrash" be the top US Netflix movie this week?

No 88% 1,467 shares