phkz

Implied probability: 1.9%
Current value: $2.77
Potential payout: $149.99
Potential profit: $147.22
Multiplier: 54.05x
User PnL: -$2.25

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.3%
Current value: $4.77
Potential payout: $110
Potential profit: $105.23
Multiplier: 23.04x
User PnL: -$0.73

Yes position

US recession by end of 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2027

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $12.31
Potential payout: $107
Potential profit: $94.7
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$16.07

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 0.5% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.7%
Current value: $4.65
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $95.35
Multiplier: 21.51x
User PnL: $0.95

Yes position

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 50+ bps at the August 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $91
Potential profit: $90.5
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$1.57

Yes position

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $3.38
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $71.63
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$13.82

Yes position

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

Ends Jan 29, 2027

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $4.76
Potential payout: $75
Potential profit: $70.23
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: -$4.63

Yes position

Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.57
Potential payout: $66.67
Potential profit: $66.1
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.43

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.5% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $2.86
Potential payout: $63.47
Potential profit: $60.61
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 2.0% before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $3.84
Potential payout: $59.14
Potential profit: $55.3
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$2.91

Yes position

Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $52.63
Potential profit: $52.24
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.61

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.7% before 2027?

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $12
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $38
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: -$8

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 1.0% before 2027?

Implied probability: 3.9%
Current value: $1.73
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $43.27
Multiplier: 25.97x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $36.2
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$4

No position

No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 13%
Current value: $4.55
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $30.45
Multiplier: 7.69x
User PnL: -$5.3

Yes position

AI bubble burst in 2026?

Implied probability: 18.7%
Current value: $6.53
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $28.47
Multiplier: 5.36x
User PnL: $0.25

Yes position

Reserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 50+ bps at the August 2026 meeting?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $34.99
Potential profit: $34.9
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.3

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $3.9
Potential payout: $27.99
Potential profit: $24.09
Multiplier: 7.17x
User PnL: -$1.1

Yes position

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 1.75% or lower before 2027?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $24.29
Potential profit: $23.19
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$0.61

No position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $5.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $14.9
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: -$0.75

Yes position

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.64
Multiplier: 55.56x
User PnL: -$0.65

Yes position

Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.93
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $14.18
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$1.28

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $2.18
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $12.83
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.67

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Canada recession before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.8

No position

Will Artemis II launch by March 31?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.45

Nothing position

Nothing Ever Happens: March

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.18

Yes position

ECB rate hike in 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.4

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.45

Yes position

Will Joe Biden be inaugurated as President of the USA on January 20th, 2021?

Ends Jan 20, 2021

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.98

Yes position

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.4

Yes position

Will Artemis II launch by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on April 24?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.2

No position

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.05

No position

Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.75

Yes position

Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.46

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the June Meeting?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.15

Yes position

Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.02

Yes position

Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Trump out as President by March 31?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.08

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.23

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET

Ends Mar 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.4

Yes position

Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?