SigmoidFreund

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $392.34
Potential payout: $24.52K
Potential profit: $24.13K
Multiplier: 62.50x
User PnL: -$3.44K

Yes position

Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $8.25K
Potential profit: $8.25K
User PnL: -$25.28

Yes position

Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.61K
Potential profit: $4.61K
User PnL: -$23.56

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $63
Potential payout: $3.6K
Potential profit: $3.54K
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$441

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $59
Potential payout: $2.95K
Potential profit: $2.89K
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$442.5

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $53.99
Potential payout: $1.83K
Potential profit: $1.78K
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$275.41

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $68.85
Potential payout: $1.7K
Potential profit: $1.63K
Multiplier: 24.69x
User PnL: -$424.15

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 4.8%
Current value: $67.93
Potential payout: $1.43K
Potential profit: $1.36K
Multiplier: 21.05x
User PnL: -$432.57

Yes position

Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $806.46
Potential profit: $806.46
User PnL: -$9.26

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.1%
Current value: $4.56
Potential payout: $222.23
Potential profit: $217.67
Multiplier: 48.78x
User PnL: -$35.45

Yes position

Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $176.44
Potential profit: $176.44
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.3%
Current value: $1.86
Potential payout: $143.14
Potential profit: $141.27
Multiplier: 76.92x
User PnL: -$6.58

Yes position

Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $76.92
User PnL: -$1

Pelicans position

Pelicans vs. Cavaliers

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $43.48
User PnL: -$10

Cardinals position

Cardinals vs. Bengals

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$10

Commanders position

Cowboys vs. Commanders

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$10

Panthers position

Seahawks vs. Panthers

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $38.46
Potential profit: $38.46
User PnL: -$10

Colts position

Jaguars vs. Colts

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35.44
Potential profit: $35.44
User PnL: -$10

Penguins position

Ducks vs. Penguins

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.83
Potential profit: $29.83
User PnL: -$15.81

Wizards position

Wizards vs. Hornets

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $29.41
Potential profit: $29.41
User PnL: -$10

Bears position

Bears vs. 49ers

Ends Dec 29, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.64
User PnL: -$10

Heat position

Heat vs. Magic

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $23.53
Potential profit: $23.53
User PnL: -$12

Golden Knights position

Golden Knights vs. Islanders

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12.28
Potential profit: $12.28
User PnL: -$7

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Vikings position

Lions vs. Vikings

Ends Dec 25, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Mavericks position

Nuggets vs. Mavericks

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.48

Raptors position

Raptors vs. Heat

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

Spurs position

Thunder vs. Spurs

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

Predators position

Predators vs. Wild

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.78

Browns position

Steelers vs. Browns

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.32

Bulls position

Bulls vs. Hawks

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.64

Jaguars position

Colts vs. Jaguars

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.61

Ravens position

Ravens vs. Packers

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.1

Giants position

Giants vs. Raiders

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.74

Wild position

Wild vs. Kraken

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.49

Yes position

Will MicroStrategy announce holding 660k+ BTC by December 31?

Ends Jan 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.63

Pacers position

Kings vs. Pacers

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.9

Knicks position

Knicks vs. Raptors

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.62

Yes position

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.04

Spurs position

Spurs vs. Pelicans

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.61

Yes position

Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?

Ends Dec 12, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 17.5%
Multiplier: 5.71x
User PnL: $0.43

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 19.4%
Multiplier: 5.17x
User PnL: -$0.33

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Minnesota governor race in 2026?