Polymarket Trader

SPLPB

0xdf0e455ca4896232ba935a8176e5e8cfbb38c02b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.19K
Realized PnL: $94.49
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $115.52
Potential payout: $608
Potential profit: $492.48
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$6.08

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the SC-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $45.99
Potential payout: $438
Potential profit: $392.01
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $6.57

No position

Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $37.8
Potential payout: $360
Potential profit: $322.2
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: $5.4

Yes position

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $18.79
Potential payout: $344.83
Potential profit: $326.03
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$1.21

Yes position

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $135.68
Potential payout: $335
Potential profit: $199.33
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$1.68

No position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $167.06
Potential payout: $259.01
Potential profit: $91.95
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $3.89

Yes position

Will Panama be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $8.69
Potential payout: $193
Potential profit: $184.32
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$4.83

Yes position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 37.4%
Current value: $68.35
Potential payout: $183
Potential profit: $114.65
Multiplier: 2.68x
User PnL: -$0.27

Yes position

Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 47.5%
Current value: $77.43
Potential payout: $163
Potential profit: $85.58
Multiplier: 2.11x
User PnL: $4.07

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the KS-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $10.28
Potential payout: $137
Potential profit: $126.73
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$6.16

No position

Will Iraq be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $5.75
Potential payout: $115
Potential profit: $109.25
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: -$1.15

No position

Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $80.85
Potential payout: $110.01
Potential profit: $29.15
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$1.65

No position

Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 8%
Current value: $8.16
Potential payout: $101.98
Potential profit: $93.82
Multiplier: 12.50x
User PnL: $4.08

No position

Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.8%
Current value: $6.64
Potential payout: $98.3
Potential profit: $91.66
Multiplier: 14.81x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 94%
Current value: $90.24
Potential payout: $96
Potential profit: $5.76
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Édouard Philippe be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?

Ends Apr 17, 2027

Implied probability: 20%
Current value: $19.2
Potential payout: $96
Potential profit: $76.8
Multiplier: 5.00x
User PnL: -$8.64

No position

Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 53%
Current value: $49.29
Potential payout: $93
Potential profit: $43.71
Multiplier: 1.89x
User PnL: -$2.79

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the TX-04 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $6.55
Potential payout: $77
Potential profit: $70.46
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$3.47

Yes position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 80.6%
Current value: $58
Potential payout: $72.01
Potential profit: $14.01
Multiplier: 1.24x
User PnL: -$0.47

No position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 90%
Current value: $59.37
Potential payout: $66
Potential profit: $6.63
Multiplier: 1.11x
User PnL: $1.42

No position

Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $56.11
Potential payout: $62
Potential profit: $5.89
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $0.93

No position

Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 73.5%
Current value: $44.1
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $15.9
Multiplier: 1.36x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in OpenAI's initial public offering?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0.8%
Current value: $0.46
Potential payout: $58
Potential profit: $57.54
Multiplier: 125.00x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will Minnesota Lynx win the 2026 WNBA Finals?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $16.43
Potential payout: $53
Potential profit: $36.57
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: -$1.06

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.94

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $13.87

No position

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: $5.01

No position

Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.98

Yes position

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.15

No position

Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $3.56

No position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.34

No position

Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 75.5%
Multiplier: 1.32x
User PnL: $3.07

No position

Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $2.99

No position

Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.65

Yes position

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 45%
Multiplier: 2.22x
User PnL: $2.55

Yes position

Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $2.46

No position

US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.43

Yes position

Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.3

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $2.27

Yes position

Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $2.22

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.1

No position

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

Ends Sep 13, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: $2.08

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.5%
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: $2.03

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 46.5%
Multiplier: 2.15x
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Will Neymar play in the World Cup?

Ends Jul 19, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $1.94

Yes position

Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: $1.57

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.55

No position

Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $1.5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Germany reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?

No 85% 41.29 shares
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14% 205 shares
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June?

Yes 90% 98.73 shares
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?

No 54% 74 shares
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

No 10% 658.47 shares
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 14% 74 shares
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Yes 59% 99 shares
Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Yes 60% 6 shares
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?

No 68% 69 shares
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?

No 10% 10 shares
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

No 56% 64 shares
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

Yes 22% 14.43 shares