Polymarket Trader

adrianfri

0xdf177bf63a08b7c900f9be1371fc374dc46186d2

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $9.78
Realized PnL: -$24.7
Win rate: 71.4%
Open positions: 4
Closed positions: 14
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $11.11
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $4.52
Potential payout: $7.94
Potential profit: $3.41
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: -$0.48

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.9%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $5.48
Potential profit: $0.23
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $0.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.21

Yes position

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?

Ends Dec 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.75

Makhachev position

UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)

Ends Nov 16, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.76

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.95

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.92

No position

Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.68

Down position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.62

No position

Maduro out by November 30, 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.21

Up position

Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Ends Dec 2, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?

Ends Nov 21, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$6.16

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$22

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1450?

Yes 63% 7.94 shares
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?

Yes 15% 33.33 shares
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?

Yes 45% 11.11 shares
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

No 91.2% 5.48 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?

No 80% 21.05 shares
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?

Yes 39.3% 15.69 shares
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 25?

Yes 39% 6.15 shares
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Yes 84% 5.95 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET

Up 50% 2 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Up 11% 9.09 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Down 84% 1.92 shares
Ethereum Up or Down - December 2, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Down 52% 1.92 shares