Yes position
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $132.66
- Potential payout
- $15.61K
- Potential profit
- $15.47K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$39.02
Polymarket Trader
JuliusNakamoto
0xdf5e4fa5be349b674874b42cfb538ac6e2534168
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $14.72K
- Realized PnL
- $48.27K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19.5%
- Current value
- $2.06K
- Potential payout
- $10.57K
- Potential profit
- $8.51K
- Multiplier
- 5.13x
- User PnL
- -$6.46K
Yes position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 18.3%
- Current value
- $1.83K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $8.18K
- Multiplier
- 5.48x
- User PnL
- -$3.18K
No position
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 81.8%
- Current value
- $8.18K
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $1.83K
- Multiplier
- 1.22x
- User PnL
- $3.18K
Yes position
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $51.46
- Potential payout
- $6.05K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$33.18
Yes position
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $34.69
- Potential payout
- $5.34K
- Potential profit
- $5.3K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- $21.54
Yes position
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $98.49
- Potential payout
- $4.02K
- Potential profit
- $3.92K
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$24.68
Yes position
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.3%
- Current value
- $170.51
- Potential payout
- $4.01K
- Potential profit
- $3.84K
- Multiplier
- 23.53x
- User PnL
- $26.29
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.9%
- Current value
- $954.02
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.05K
- Multiplier
- 4.19x
- User PnL
- -$36.91
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 4.7%
- Current value
- $186
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.81K
- Multiplier
- 21.51x
- User PnL
- $22
Yes position
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $46
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.95K
- Multiplier
- 86.96x
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $50
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.95K
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$18
Yes position
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $22
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.98K
- Multiplier
- 181.82x
- User PnL
- $6.25
Yes position
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $30
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.97K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $61.87
- Potential payout
- $3.99K
- Potential profit
- $3.93K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$37.91
No position
Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.98K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- User PnL
- -$746.76
Yes position
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.7%
- Current value
- $241.26
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.26K
- Multiplier
- 10.36x
- User PnL
- $118.76
Yes position
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 2.3%
- Current value
- $52.19
- Potential payout
- $2.32K
- Potential profit
- $2.27K
- Multiplier
- 44.44x
- User PnL
- $23.11
Yes position
Will February be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $2.3K
- User PnL
- -$191.52
Yes position
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $36.77
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $2.26K
- Multiplier
- 62.50x
- User PnL
- -$154.75
Yes position
Will May be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $2.3K
- User PnL
- -$191.52
Yes position
Will August be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $241.31
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $2.06K
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- $49.8
Yes position
Will July be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $229.82
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $2.07K
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- $38.3
Yes position
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $17.93
- Potential payout
- $2.11K
- Potential profit
- $2.09K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- $10.82
Resolved Context
Closed positions
100k position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $130k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.73K
Yes position
Ethereum flipped in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.64K
Yes position
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.2K
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?
Ends Jul 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.21K
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?
Ends Aug 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.83K
100k position
Will Bitcoin hit $100k or $120k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.69K
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?
Ends Jul 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.01K
80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 50%
- Multiplier
- 2.00x
- User PnL
- $1.88K
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
90k position
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $110k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45K
80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
$2500 position
Will Ethereum hit $2,500 or $3,000 first?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.19K
$90k position
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.13K
Yes position
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.06K
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2700 on June 10?
Ends Jun 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
"Happy Gilmore 2" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69?
Ends Jul 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $991.13
Yes position
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 9.1%
- Multiplier
- 11.05x
- User PnL
- $824.5
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
Ends May 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $788.46
Yes position
Will DIY hold the second most seats in the House of Councillors following the 2025 Japan election?
Ends Jul 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $763.08
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $604.31
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $589.97
Yes position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 12 to September 19, 2025?
Ends Sep 19, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $552.14
$20 position
Will $TRUMP hit $10 or $20 first?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $550.77
$80k position
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $549.69
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 1% 3,715.81 shares
- Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?Yes 15% 901.92 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?No 80% 512 shares
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No 90.6% 2,000 shares
- Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?No 90.5% 1,000 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?No 86.7% 1,714.54 shares
- Will any Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Exam?No 28.2% 652.76 shares
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?No 31% 742.24 shares
- Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes 1.2% 2,054.35 shares
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?No 77.5% 584 shares
- Thai Constitutional Court invalidates election?No 90% 1,000 shares
- Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes 1.1% 15,607.57 shares