No position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $297.11
- Potential payout
- $5.4K
- Potential profit
- $5.1K
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$742.01
Polymarket Trader
jk345a6bsdk
0xdf6cafedd729f199bb0e88ecb8d5bbff19ebeb44
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $6.41K
- Realized PnL
- $10.17K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.8%
- Current value
- $128.98
- Potential payout
- $2.69K
- Potential profit
- $2.56K
- Multiplier
- 20.83x
- User PnL
- $27.7
No position
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 37%
- Current value
- $817.81
- Potential payout
- $2.21K
- Potential profit
- $1.39K
- Multiplier
- 2.70x
- User PnL
- -$413.62
Yes position
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2%
- Current value
- $42.12
- Potential payout
- $2.16K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- Multiplier
- 51.28x
- User PnL
- -$6.36
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.3%
- Current value
- $26.86
- Potential payout
- $2.15K
- Potential profit
- $2.12K
- Multiplier
- 80.00x
- User PnL
- -$36.5
Yes position
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 33%
- Current value
- $699.37
- Potential payout
- $2.12K
- Potential profit
- $1.42K
- Multiplier
- 3.03x
- User PnL
- -$266.52
Yes position
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $3
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$3
No position
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 80.5%
- Current value
- $1.33K
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $321.74
- Multiplier
- 1.24x
- User PnL
- $41.86
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $386.42
- Potential payout
- $1.09K
- Potential profit
- $702.08
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$266.79
Yes position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $114.68
- Potential payout
- $917.46
- Potential profit
- $802.78
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $23.12
No position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $52.78
- Potential payout
- $811.99
- Potential profit
- $759.21
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$112.39
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $740
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $60
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $12
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $434.99
- Potential payout
- $480.65
- Potential profit
- $45.66
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $165.41
No position
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.3%
- Current value
- $383.17
- Potential payout
- $459.98
- Potential profit
- $76.82
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $23.53
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $369.08
- Potential payout
- $370
- Potential profit
- $0.93
- User PnL
- $108.84
No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.1%
- Current value
- $18.76
- Potential payout
- $310
- Potential profit
- $291.25
- Multiplier
- 16.53x
- User PnL
- -$102.01
No position
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $283.5
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$4.5
No position
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $40.6
- Potential payout
- $280
- Potential profit
- $239.4
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- -$68.6
Yes position
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
Ends Sep 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $18.06
- Potential payout
- $280
- Potential profit
- $261.94
- Multiplier
- 15.50x
- User PnL
- $2.1
Yes position
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $5.46
- Potential payout
- $260
- Potential profit
- $254.54
- Multiplier
- 47.62x
- User PnL
- -$3.38
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 23.5%
- Current value
- $58.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $191.25
- Multiplier
- 4.26x
- User PnL
- -$2.55
No position
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $200.8
- Potential payout
- $237.64
- Potential profit
- $36.83
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $8.32
No position
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.3%
- Current value
- $199.07
- Potential payout
- $209
- Potential profit
- $9.93
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $25.6
Yes position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $26.63
- Potential payout
- $190.23
- Potential profit
- $163.6
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- $6.4
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.59K
Yes position
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.29K
Yes position
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $932.22
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $676.15
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $571.99
Yes position
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $446.98
No position
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $412.58
Yes position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran before July?
Ends Jul 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $300.35
No position
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $298.84
Yes position
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $292.53
Yes position
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $241.15
Yes position
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $224.35
No position
Starmer out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $220.31
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Oct 10, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $198.75
Yes position
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $182.57
No position
Maduro out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $169.32
No position
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $168.07
No position
US forces in Venezuela by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $158.8
No position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.26
G2 Esports position
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $144.3
Yes position
New Pope in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $141.87
No position
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $123.68
Yes position
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $115.2
No position
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $114.59
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?No 31% 310.29 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?No 30.7% 300 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?No 57.6% 165 shares
- Starmer out by August 31, 2026?No 36% 12.1 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?No 99.4% 200 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?No 66% 26.86 shares
- Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?No 68.4% 570 shares
- Starmer out by December 31, 2026?No 19% 700 shares
- Starmer out by July 31, 2026?No 53% 340 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 94% 310 shares
- Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Yes 45% 15 shares
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No 93.3% 200 shares