No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $217.83K
- Potential profit
- $217.83K
- User PnL
- -$116.25K
Polymarket Trader
cqs
0xdfe3fedc5c7679be42c3d393e99d4b55247b73c4
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $389.32K
- Realized PnL
- $636.27K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89%
- Current value
- $162.97K
- Potential payout
- $183.11K
- Potential profit
- $20.14K
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $50.24K
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $15.75K
- Potential payout
- $100K
- Potential profit
- $84.25K
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$1.25K
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $73.56K
- Potential payout
- $87.05K
- Potential profit
- $13.49K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $21.04K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $64.62K
- Potential profit
- $64.62K
- User PnL
- -$59.85K
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $56.25K
- Potential payout
- $62.15K
- Potential profit
- $5.9K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $8.39K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $37.66K
- Potential profit
- $37.66K
- User PnL
- -$29.03K
Yes position
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $19.18K
- Potential payout
- $23.54K
- Potential profit
- $4.36K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $1.93K
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $19.85K
- Potential payout
- $20K
- Potential profit
- $150
- User PnL
- $1.45K
No position
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 81.5%
- Current value
- $13.1K
- Potential payout
- $16.08K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $721.91
No position
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.2%
- Current value
- $10.03K
- Potential payout
- $10.11K
- Potential profit
- $80.86
- User PnL
- $1.94K
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$2.48K
No position
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 81%
- Current value
- $8.05K
- Potential payout
- $9.94K
- Potential profit
- $1.89K
- Multiplier
- 1.23x
- User PnL
- $1.09K
No position
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $5.33K
- Potential payout
- $5.36K
- Potential profit
- $24.12
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $3.8K
- Multiplier
- 4.18x
- User PnL
- $592.5
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 21.5%
- Current value
- $1.07K
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $3.92K
- Multiplier
- 4.65x
- User PnL
- -$375
Yes position
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.82K
- Potential profit
- $1.82K
- User PnL
- -$1.37K
No position
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $984.5
- Potential payout
- $1.1K
- Potential profit
- $115.5
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $228.5
Yes position
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 43%
- Current value
- $430
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $570
- Multiplier
- 2.33x
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 16.5%
- Current value
- $165
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $835
- Multiplier
- 6.06x
- User PnL
- -$125
No position
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $986.49
- Potential payout
- $999.99
- Potential profit
- $13.5
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $266.5
Yes position
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14.5%
- Current value
- $130.5
- Potential payout
- $900
- Potential profit
- $769.5
- Multiplier
- 6.90x
- User PnL
- $49.5
Yes position
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $254.02
- Potential payout
- $715.56
- Potential profit
- $461.54
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$208.99
Yes position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $32.5
- Potential payout
- $499.98
- Potential profit
- $467.49
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$227.49
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $91.84K
No position
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
Ends Apr 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $67.62K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $61.88K
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.41K
No position
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $36.45K
Yes position
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.03K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $29.33K
Yes position
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.44K
No position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26K
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.1K
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $22.58K
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.25K
Yes position
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Ends Nov 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $17.85K
No position
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.32K
No position
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.98K
No position
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.49K
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $12.82K
Yes position
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?
Ends Jun 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.76K
No position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.66K
Yes position
Will Biden finish his term?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.08K
Yes position
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months?
Ends Aug 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.41K
No position
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.6K
No position
Ukraine election called in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.72K
No position
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.66K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 86.5% 7,403.49 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Yes 97.6% 22,678.26 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 97.4% 112 shares
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes 30% 169.54 shares
- Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?Yes 0.3% 185.01 shares
- Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?No 0.2% 2,566.48 shares
- Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Yes 98.4% 3,895.21 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No 85% 30,000 shares
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No 92.9% 580.66 shares
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?No 85.1% 30,000 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No 93.2% 42,200.99 shares
- Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?Yes 99.7% 10,000 shares