Yes position
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.25K
- Potential profit
- $6.25K
- User PnL
- -$3.9K
Polymarket Trader
lumpenspace
0xe05acb59d840364093914e045e0bc55adbf35fdd
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $338.21
- Realized PnL
- $4.55K
- Win rate
- 66.7%
- Open positions
- 16
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.4%
- Current value
- $94.86
- Potential payout
- $4.04K
- Potential profit
- $3.94K
- Multiplier
- 42.55x
- User PnL
- -$92.14
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $25.46
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $1.62K
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$89.53
Yes position
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $30.57
- Potential payout
- $1.25K
- Potential profit
- $1.22K
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$62.43
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.16K
- Potential profit
- $1.16K
- User PnL
- -$93
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $25.37
- Potential payout
- $724.85
- Potential profit
- $699.48
- Multiplier
- 28.57x
- User PnL
- -$4.63
Yes position
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 7.5%
- Current value
- $34.1
- Potential payout
- $454.69
- Potential profit
- $420.58
- Multiplier
- 13.33x
- User PnL
- -$9.9
Yes position
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $310
- Potential profit
- $310
- User PnL
- -$31
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $54.17
- Potential payout
- $309.56
- Potential profit
- $255.39
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $1.17
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $253.97
- Potential profit
- $253.97
- User PnL
- -$160
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 12%
- Current value
- $30.19
- Potential payout
- $251.56
- Potential profit
- $221.37
- Multiplier
- 8.33x
- User PnL
- -$9.81
Yes position
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $178.26
- Potential profit
- $178.26
- User PnL
- -$41
Yes position
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?
Ends Jun 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $133.33
- Potential profit
- $133.33
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.5%
- Current value
- $0.98
- Potential payout
- $67.57
- Potential profit
- $66.59
- Multiplier
- 68.97x
- User PnL
- -$24.02
Yes position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $33.65
- Potential payout
- $45.78
- Potential profit
- $12.13
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- $13.65
Yes position
VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 29%
- Current value
- $8.87
- Potential payout
- $30.57
- Potential profit
- $21.71
- Multiplier
- 3.45x
- User PnL
- -$1.13
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Elon tweet 750-799 times Feb 21-28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.18K
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $833.04
Yes position
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $601.92
Yes position
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $394.83
No position
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $195.64
Yes position
Will Trump and Elon say "Department of Education" during their Feb 18 interview?
Ends Feb 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $193.66
Yes position
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $163.64
Yes position
Will RFK Jr. be Trump's HHS Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $153.41
Yes position
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $59.1
Yes position
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Ends Mar 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $50.15
Yes position
Will Trump say 'DEI' or 'diversity, equity, and inclusion' during the 2025 State of the Union?
Ends Mar 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $49.25
Yes position
Will Trump and Elon say "DOGE" 3 or more times during their Feb 18 interview?
Ends Feb 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $43.13
No position
U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.88
Yes position
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.46
No position
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?
Ends Feb 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.41
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- -$0.16
Yes position
US national Solana reserve in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.68
Yes position
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$22
Yes position
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$26
Yes position
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$80
Yes position
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$97.05
Yes position
Will another country launch a memecoin in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
Will another coalition form the next German Government?
Ends Feb 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$100
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 4.1% 724.85 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 7% 1,642.86 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 4.4% 1,123.86 shares
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 85.5% 160.04 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026?Yes 15.9% 251.56 shares
- Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Yes 15% 133.33 shares
- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 43.7% 45.78 shares
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?Yes 14% 142.86 shares
- Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes 7.5% 1,247.59 shares
- Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Yes 9.9% 404.51 shares
- VEO 4 released by June 30, 2026?Yes 32.7% 30.57 shares
- Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?Yes 8% 50.18 shares