Polymarket Trader

lug

0xe0dbdb7f005f233f4510e4ef7e53a2f76a8df44e

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $77.18K
Realized PnL: $307.43K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $525.45
Potential payout: $61.82K
Potential profit: $61.29K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$92.73

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $1.17K
Potential payout: $23.69K
Potential profit: $22.52K
Multiplier: 20.20x
User PnL: $11.85

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $16.57K
Potential payout: $18.31K
Potential profit: $1.74K
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $1.04K

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $15.03K
Potential payout: $17.18K
Potential profit: $2.15K
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $2.56K

No position

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 86.4%
Current value: $13.53K
Potential payout: $15.66K
Potential profit: $2.14K
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $24.56

No position

Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $12K
Potential profit: $12K
User PnL: -$7.56K

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $8.18K
Potential payout: $10.56K
Potential profit: $2.38K
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: -$58.31

Yes position

Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $7.45K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $2.56K
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $6.12K

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 15.7%
Current value: $1.56K
Potential payout: $10K
Potential profit: $8.43K
Multiplier: 6.39x
User PnL: $1.18K

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $6.33K
Potential payout: $7.77K
Potential profit: $1.44K
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $113.06

No position

Will France win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$1.98K

No position

Will United States win on 2026-06-12?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$3K

No position

Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$4.38K

Over position

Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$2.76K

Yes position

Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$3.6K

No position

Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$2.88K

No position

Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$1.86K

Under position

United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$3.72K

Yes position

Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 51.5%
Current value: $3.09K
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $2.91K
Multiplier: 1.94x
User PnL: -$30

Golden Knights position

Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$2.46K

Over position

Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$2.7K

Iraq position

Spread: Norway (-2.5)

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$3.9K

No position

Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

Ends Jun 21, 2026

Implied probability: 62.5%
Current value: $3.75K
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $2.25K
Multiplier: 1.60x
User PnL: $30

Spurs position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6K
Potential profit: $6K
User PnL: -$3.84K

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $74.88K

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 19, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.45K

No position

Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.21K

No position

Will Nicolas Maduro Win the 2024 Venezuela presidential election?

Ends Jul 28, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.68K

No position

Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?

Ends Feb 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.49K

No position

Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.82K

Yes position

Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?

Ends Sep 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.3K

No position

Will Harris publicly support tax on unrealized gains?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12.08K

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.88K

No position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.4K

No position

Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.41K

No position

Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.49K

Harris position

If RFK drops out, who will gain more in polls?

Ends Oct 27, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.09K

Yes position

Will Ricardo Nunes win the 2024 São Paulo mayoral election?

Ends Oct 6, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.83K

Nuggets position

Thunder vs. Nuggets

Ends May 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.68K

Yes position

Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian election?

Ends Apr 28, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.53K

Houston position

Houston vs. Duke

Ends Apr 13, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.42K

No position

Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.34K

Celtics position

Magic vs. Celtics

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.04K

No position

Will California pass SB 1047 AI safety bill?

Ends Sep 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.99K

Yes position

Will Ohio State win the 2025 College Football Playoff?

Ends Jan 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.98K

No position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.96K

No position

Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-01?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.75K

Magic position

Magic vs. Pistons

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.74K

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?

No 70% 6,000 shares
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5

Under 46% 6,000 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

No 79% 5,556.08 shares
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)

DR Congo 47% 6,000 shares
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)

Algeria 64% 6,000 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 64% 6,000 shares
Spread: Norway (-2.5)

Iraq 65% 6,000 shares
Will France win on 2026-06-16?

No 33% 6,000 shares
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?

No 48% 6,000 shares
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5

Over 45% 6,000 shares
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Kraus

Polina Kudermetova 51% 6,000 shares
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?

No 75% 6,000 shares