Yes position
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-18?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $359.96
- Potential profit
- $359.96
- User PnL
- -$172.39
Polymarket Trader
Michaus
0xe184146a5f9756dc5046a6a1f64efaef5e3a920a
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $275.01
- Realized PnL
- $494.29
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?
Ends Nov 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 68.1%
- Current value
- $163.32
- Potential payout
- $240
- Potential profit
- $76.68
- Multiplier
- 1.47x
- User PnL
- $144.84
Yes position
Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $163.85
- Potential profit
- $163.85
- User PnL
- -$106.3
Yes position
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.8%
- Current value
- $6.24
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $73.76
- Multiplier
- 12.82x
- User PnL
- $4.16
Yes position
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $1.71
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $78.29
- Multiplier
- 46.73x
- User PnL
- -$0.81
Yes position
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $0.67
- Potential payout
- $70
- Potential profit
- $69.34
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$0.39
Yes position
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $67.14
- Potential payout
- $67.14
- Potential profit
- $0
- User PnL
- $17.14
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.1%
- Current value
- $0.53
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.48
- Multiplier
- 95.24x
- User PnL
- -$0.63
Yes position
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.88
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $49.13
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.13
No position
Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $49.99
- Potential profit
- $49.99
- User PnL
- -$43.49
No position
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $39.85
- Potential profit
- $39.85
- User PnL
- -$32.25
Yes position
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $1.49
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $28.52
- Multiplier
- 20.20x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $27.75
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $2.25
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $0.05
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $29.47
- Potential profit
- $29.47
- User PnL
- -$16.5
Yes position
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Ends Dec 6, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $2.91
- Potential payout
- $23.26
- Potential profit
- $20.35
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$7.09
No position
Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$13
Yes position
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.6%
- Current value
- $0.31
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.69
- Multiplier
- 64.52x
- User PnL
- -$0.19
Yes position
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-22?
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$10.6
No position
Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$19.6
Yes position
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $1.3
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $18.7
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$0.5
No position
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
Ends Dec 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$16.4
Yes position
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Ends Oct 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.9%
- Current value
- $0.78
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.22
- Multiplier
- 25.64x
- User PnL
- $0.1
No position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$17.2
No position
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $20
- User PnL
- -$18.2
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw?
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $207.19
Yes position
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score
Ends Apr 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $148
No position
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.2
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $12.98
Yes position
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-12-21?
Ends Dec 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
Yes position
Maduro out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9
No position
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $8.6
Yes position
Will Russia capture Rodynske by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.59
Yes position
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-21?
Ends Dec 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.4
No position
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $8
No position
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $6.8
Yes position
Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 11.3%
- Multiplier
- 8.89x
- User PnL
- $6.5
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 26?
Ends Dec 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.3
No position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.8
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 21?
Ends Dec 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.2
Yes position
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?
Ends Apr 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.16
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.8
Yes position
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.6
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.48
No position
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4
No position
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.8%
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8
No position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.7
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?No 93% 10 shares
- Will Max Verstappen retire from F1 in 2026?No 82.4% 12.08 shares
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes 43% 23.26 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?Yes 42% 144.2 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?Yes 33% 144.21 shares
- MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch?Yes 74.5% 67.14 shares
- Will the Finding Satoshi documentary identify Hal Finney as Satoshi?Yes 65% 153.85 shares
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-19?Yes 70% 13.87 shares
- Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Yes 66% 20 shares
- Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?No 56% 29.47 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Yes 99.4% 10 shares
- Will Doug Mason win The Bachelorette Season 22?Yes 7.7% 164.51 shares