No position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $42.23K
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $7.78K
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $17.23K
Polymarket Trader
tja
0xe1b361d6a6f237b9ed7534d19b232df8369e1426
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $72.97K
- Realized PnL
- $62.53K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Current value
- $7.78K
- Potential payout
- $50K
- Potential profit
- $42.23K
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- -$17.23K
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Current value
- $2.41K
- Potential payout
- $48.12K
- Potential profit
- $45.71K
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.07K
Yes position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 27.5%
- Current value
- $1.28K
- Potential payout
- $4.66K
- Potential profit
- $3.38K
- Multiplier
- 3.64x
- User PnL
- -$898.82
No position
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.9%
- Current value
- $3.71K
- Potential payout
- $3.92K
- Potential profit
- $201.7
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.5%
- Current value
- $104.1
- Potential payout
- $3.02K
- Potential profit
- $2.91K
- Multiplier
- 28.99x
- User PnL
- -$856.61
No position
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.8%
- Current value
- $1.97K
- Potential payout
- $2.08K
- Potential profit
- $109
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $136.12
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Current value
- $192.94
- Potential payout
- $2.03K
- Potential profit
- $1.84K
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- -$71.08
Yes position
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?
Ends Jun 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $1.95K
- Potential payout
- $2.02K
- Potential profit
- $73.83
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $251.68
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 61.5%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.71K
- Potential profit
- $658.35
- Multiplier
- 1.63x
- User PnL
- $25.65
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $1.31K
- Potential payout
- $1.5K
- Potential profit
- $187.5
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $262.5
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $1.2K
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $0.6
- User PnL
- $683.4
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 43.5%
- Current value
- $521.99
- Potential payout
- $1.2K
- Potential profit
- $677.99
- Multiplier
- 2.30x
- User PnL
- $122
Yes position
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.9%
- Current value
- $1K
- Potential payout
- $1.04K
- Potential profit
- $32.11
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $19.68
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $833.89
- Potential payout
- $1.01K
- Potential profit
- $176.89
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $5.06
No position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.2%
- Current value
- $941.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $58.5
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $111.5
No position
Gemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.7%
- Current value
- $958.47
- Potential payout
- $981.54
- Potential profit
- $23.07
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $180.38
Yes position
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 73%
- Current value
- $668.26
- Potential payout
- $915.42
- Potential profit
- $247.16
- Multiplier
- 1.37x
- User PnL
- $317.73
Yes position
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.3%
- Current value
- $57.77
- Potential payout
- $700.29
- Potential profit
- $642.52
- Multiplier
- 12.12x
- User PnL
- $2.53
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $585.41
- Potential payout
- $646.86
- Potential profit
- $61.45
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $164.95
No position
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.6%
- Current value
- $597.29
- Potential payout
- $599.99
- Potential profit
- $2.7
- User PnL
- $12.9
No position
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $557.41
- Potential payout
- $596.16
- Potential profit
- $38.75
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $1.87
No position
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $562.75
- Potential payout
- $567
- Potential profit
- $4.25
- User PnL
- $5.85
Yes position
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $504.26
- Potential payout
- $530.8
- Potential profit
- $26.54
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $41.32
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.57K
Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase December 2-8?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.93K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.6K
Yes position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.24K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.4K
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.34K
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.75K
Yes position
Will Alibaba’s Qwen 3 Max win the NOF1.ai competition?
Ends Oct 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.74K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.57K
Yes position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.53K
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.27K
No position
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 26-June 1?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.2K
Yes position
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert?
Ends Sep 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.87K
Yes position
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
Ends Mar 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.83K
Yes position
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.76K
Yes position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71K
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
No position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.61K
No position
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?
Ends Feb 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.6K
No position
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31?
Ends Nov 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.58K
No position
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30?
Ends Dec 1, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.51K
No position
Trump kiss by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
Yes position
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.4K
No position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.38K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?Yes 95% 1,035.86 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?No 65% 308.38 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?No 82% 610.78 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?No 60% 1,710 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?Yes 43% 300 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Yes 17% 999.98 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 88% 315 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 90% 96.3 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 95% 40 shares
- Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Yes 95% 271.55 shares
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 31% 198.1 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Yes 93% 1,078.25 shares