Yes position
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?
Ends May 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $17K
- Potential profit
- $17K
- User PnL
- -$269.98
Polymarket Trader
illumination
0xe1b5920c9d192a7cb74887529ea6caa640928378
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $425.65
- Realized PnL
- $13.92K
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $16.5
- Potential payout
- $11K
- Potential profit
- $10.98K
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- $5.5
Yes position
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$40
No position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$570
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $10K
- User PnL
- -$360
Yes position
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.4%
- Current value
- $35
- Potential payout
- $10K
- Potential profit
- $9.96K
- Multiplier
- 285.71x
- User PnL
- $25
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.6K
- Potential profit
- $9.6K
- User PnL
- -$39.59
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $7K
- Potential profit
- $7K
- User PnL
- -$42
Yes position
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6K
- Potential profit
- $6K
- User PnL
- -$7
Yes position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $12.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.99K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$37.5
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $5K
- User PnL
- -$125
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $30
- Potential payout
- $4K
- Potential profit
- $3.97K
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.8K
- Potential profit
- $3.8K
- User PnL
- -$242
Yes position
Will Trump say "Judy Shelton" during the State of the Union address?
Ends Feb 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.23K
- Potential profit
- $3.23K
- User PnL
- -$55.36
Yes position
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.2K
- Potential profit
- $3.2K
- User PnL
- -$256
No position
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$16
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Current value
- $18
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.98K
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- -$12
Yes position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $7.5
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $2.99K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $3K
- User PnL
- -$30
Yes position
Netanyahu out by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $2.6K
- Potential profit
- $2.6K
- User PnL
- -$104
Yes position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.9%
- Current value
- $46.25
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $2.45K
- Multiplier
- 54.05x
- User PnL
- -$3.75
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $9.9
- Potential payout
- $2.2K
- Potential profit
- $2.19K
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$12.1
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $250
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.75K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- -$50
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 14?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $1.8K
- User PnL
- -$306
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.29K
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.65K
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.31K
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $730.55
Yes position
Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $577.58
No position
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $486.17
Yes position
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $472.5
No position
Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $470.33
Yes position
TikTok sale announced in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $372.01
No position
Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $345
Yes position
Epstein client list released in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $263.94
No position
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $244.37
No position
Ukraine agrees to US-approved peace plan by Thursday?
Ends Nov 27, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $214.62
Yes position
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.25
No position
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $173.32
No position
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $143.85
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.3
No position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.07
No position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will Xi Jinping be the next leader out in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Multiplier
- 18.18x
- User PnL
- -$5.35
Yes position
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?
Ends Dec 26, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$9.87
No position
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 91%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- -$13.87
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 6.3% 311.83 shares
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No 86% 304.99 shares
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No 90.6% 304.99 shares
- Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes 8% 311.83 shares
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 0.1% 8,887.52 shares
- Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?Yes 0.1% 1,000 shares
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes 6.3% 300 shares
- Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Yes 99.7% 56.4 shares
- Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Yes 0.2% 1,000 shares
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 24, 2026?No 19% 20 shares
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?No 14% 80.02 shares
- Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?No 17% 37.5 shares