No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $801.35
- Potential payout
- $926.42
- Potential profit
- $125.07
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $79.28
Polymarket Trader
DistilledAppleJuice
0xe238dc271520765ae22b528a36bb32e96defd3fc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.24K
- Realized PnL
- $442.69
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $233.75
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $16.25
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $2.25
No position
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $199.91
- Potential payout
- $200.01
- Potential profit
- $0.1
- User PnL
- $8.3
Yes position
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $100
- User PnL
- -$76
Yes position
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $79.99
- Potential profit
- $79.99
- User PnL
- -$36.3
Yes position
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $50
- User PnL
- -$40.5
No position
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$17.2
Yes position
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 19%
- Current value
- $0.36
- Potential payout
- $1.88
- Potential profit
- $1.52
- Multiplier
- 5.26x
- User PnL
- $0.19
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $166.54
No position
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $76
Yes position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $22
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 11?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $14.79
Yes position
Will Trump say "Ship" or "Chip" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.6
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.97
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 14?
Ends Apr 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12
No position
Will Trump say "Shanghai" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.5
No position
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.39
No position
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.8
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.3
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.9
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $8.8
No position
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on April 13?
Ends Apr 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.7
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.12
No position
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 12?
Ends Apr 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.6
No position
Will Trump say "Mao" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.5
No position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or higher on April 11?
Ends Apr 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.1
No position
Will Trump say "Transgender" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.9
No position
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.48
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on April 8?
Ends Apr 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.1
Yes position
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on April 9?
Ends Apr 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.95
No position
Will Trump say "Kamikaze" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.66
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?Yes 30% 186.7 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 78% 61.82 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 76% 300 shares
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?No 99% 400 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 76% 200 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:25AM-3:30AM ETDown 77% 6.49 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ETUp 50% 10 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ETUp 49.1% 193.77 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ETUp 47.3% 52.87 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ETUp 46.1% 54.2 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:45AM-1:50AM ETUp 46% 10.87 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 12?Yes 6.3% 23.14 shares