No position
Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 9, 2026- Implied probability
- 47.5%
- Current value
- $1.75K
- Potential payout
- $3.68K
- Potential profit
- $1.93K
- Multiplier
- 2.11x
- User PnL
- -$574.9
Polymarket Trader
ibear
0xe25a84f2a1f1896686e6ec6dd92703e512907f82
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $3.38K
- Realized PnL
- $13.76K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 3
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Current value
- $1.63K
- Potential payout
- $2.3K
- Potential profit
- $667
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $40
Yes position
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.1
- Potential profit
- $6.1
- User PnL
- -$5
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.95K
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.25K
Yes position
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.12K
Yes position
Will France win on 2026-06-16?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $951.07
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $869.18
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $792.44
Yes position
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $634.5
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $622.2
Yes position
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $540
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $510.6
Yes position
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $480.31
Yes position
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $439.02
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $438.22
Yes position
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $302.34
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $269.42
No position
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $261.66
Yes position
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $190.15
Yes position
Ranger FDV above $15M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $178.4
Yes position
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Qatar Grand Prix?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $176
Yes position
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?
Ends Feb 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $172
Yes position
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $149.4
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $126.72
Yes position
Will Lando Norris win the Sprint at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?
Ends Nov 15, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $107.72
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will France win on 2026-06-16?Yes 99% 2,948.93 shares
- Will France win on 2026-06-16?Yes 67% 2,985.07 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Yes 82% 4.88 shares
- Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?Yes 82% 1.22 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Yes 50% 8 shares
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Yes 56.2% 100 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?No 0.4% 1,904.06 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 86% 810.47 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Yes 65% 810.46 shares
- Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?Yes 0.8% 7,610.74 shares
- Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?Yes 17.3% 2,660 shares
- US government shutdown Saturday?Yes 47.9% 2,601.21 shares