MohammedSPatel

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.41
Potential profit: $4.41
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 21.3%
Current value: $0.87
Potential payout: $4.12
Potential profit: $3.24
Multiplier: 4.71x
User PnL: -$0.13

No position

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $2.72
Potential payout: $3.26
Potential profit: $0.54
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.72

No position

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.86
Potential profit: $2.86
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $2.33
Potential payout: $2.34
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 40.5%
Current value: $0.94
Potential payout: $2.33
Potential profit: $1.38
Multiplier: 2.47x
User PnL: -$0.06

No position

Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.27
Potential profit: $2.27
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 54.5%
Current value: $0.99
Potential payout: $1.82
Potential profit: $0.83
Multiplier: 1.83x
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.82
Potential profit: $1.82
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.75
Potential profit: $1.75
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $1.34
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$0.77

No position

Starmer out by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $1.56
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 71%
Current value: $1.11
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $0.45
Multiplier: 1.41x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Implied probability: 83.7%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $1.5
Potential profit: $0.25
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $0.25

No position

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 78.5%
Current value: $1.17
Potential payout: $1.49
Potential profit: $0.32
Multiplier: 1.27x
User PnL: $0.17

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.45
Potential profit: $1.45
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 86.5%
Current value: $1.2
Potential payout: $1.39
Potential profit: $0.19
Multiplier: 1.16x
User PnL: $0.2

No position

Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $1.33
Potential payout: $1.35
Potential profit: $0.02
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.33

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $1.11
Potential payout: $1.35
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $0.11

Yes position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.09
Potential payout: $1.33
Potential profit: $0.25
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $0.09

Yes position

Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.33
Potential profit: $1.33
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.32
Potential profit: $1.32
User PnL: -$0.99

No position

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $1.22
Potential payout: $1.32
Potential profit: $0.1
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.22

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.64

$80k position

Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.85

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $0.8

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.69

No position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.68

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $0.63

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be 84°F or higher on April 13?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

Yes position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.4

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.39

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.38

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.37

No position

Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $350 end of March?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.33

Yes position

Will Trump say "Beautiful" 3+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will JD Vance say "Hungary" or "Hungarian" 8+ times during meetings with Orbán?

Ends Apr 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.3

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.28

No position

Starmer out by May 15, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.27

Yes position

Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?

Ends Apr 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.26

No position

US x Iran ceasefire before Oil hits $120?