Polymarket Trader

sfud

0xe2dd774932a54607fc4130d03cf8a072975abe11

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $196.15
Realized PnL: -$5
Win rate: 0%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 1
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $35
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $465
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: $5

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $24.28
Potential payout: $110.62
Potential profit: $86.34
Multiplier: 4.56x
User PnL: -$0.72

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.2%
Current value: $4.01
Potential payout: $77.09
Potential profit: $73.08
Multiplier: 19.23x
User PnL: -$0.99

Yes position

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $9.62
Potential payout: $76.92
Potential profit: $67.31
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$0.38

Yes position

Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 15.4%
Current value: $8.77
Potential payout: $57.14
Potential profit: $48.37
Multiplier: 6.51x
User PnL: -$1.23

Yes position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Current value: $13.92
Potential payout: $32.74
Potential profit: $18.83
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $3.92

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 28?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.57
Potential profit: $27.57
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $13.88
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $11.13
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $3.88

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $9.25
Potential payout: $15.04
Potential profit: $5.79
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: -$0.75

No position

Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Ends Oct 28, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $8.43
Potential payout: $14.93
Potential profit: $6.49
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$1.57

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 71.5%
Current value: $6.4
Potential payout: $8.96
Potential profit: $2.56
Multiplier: 1.40x
User PnL: $1.4

No position

Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 55.3%
Current value: $4.78
Potential payout: $8.64
Potential profit: $3.86
Multiplier: 1.81x
User PnL: -$0.22

Yes position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $4.96
Potential payout: $8.62
Potential profit: $3.66
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 60.5%
Current value: $5.04
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $3.29
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.04

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $5.79
Potential payout: $8.22
Potential profit: $2.42
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.21

No position

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 58.5%
Current value: $4.5
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $3.19
Multiplier: 1.71x
User PnL: -$0.5

No position

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 66.5%
Current value: $4.96
Potential payout: $7.46
Potential profit: $2.5
Multiplier: 1.50x
User PnL: -$0.04

No position

Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 77.5%
Current value: $5.38
Potential payout: $6.94
Potential profit: $1.56
Multiplier: 1.29x
User PnL: $0.38

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 72.5%
Current value: $4.63
Potential payout: $6.39
Potential profit: $1.76
Multiplier: 1.38x
User PnL: -$0.37

Yes position

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $4.97
Potential payout: $6.1
Potential profit: $1.13
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 99.3%
Current value: $5.97
Potential payout: $6.02
Potential profit: $0.04
User PnL: $0.97

No position

Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28?

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 98.5%
Current value: $5.53
Potential payout: $5.62
Potential profit: $0.08
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $0.53

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 92.5%
Current value: $5.08
Potential payout: $5.49
Potential profit: $0.41
Multiplier: 1.08x
User PnL: $0.08

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $1
Potential payout: $1.01
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: -$0

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET

Up 0.1% 5,000 shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29?

Yes 30.5% 32.74 shares
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29?

No 57.9% 8.64 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 29?

Up 40% 25 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on June 28?

No 89% 5.62 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 28?

No 36.3% 27.57 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28?

No 83.1% 6.02 shares
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June?

No 78.2% 6.39 shares
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?

No 55.8% 8.96 shares
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

Yes 6% 500 shares
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?

No 67% 14.93 shares
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Yes 13% 76.92 shares