asdfasdf111

Implied probability: 50%
Current value: $5.7
Potential payout: $11.41
Potential profit: $5.7
Multiplier: 2.00x
User PnL: $0.5

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 98.6%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $10.06
Potential profit: $0.14
Multiplier: 1.01x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 3.6%
Current value: $0.36
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.64
Multiplier: 27.78x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on July 14?

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.66
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: $0.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.04

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.76
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$0.71

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 14?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $0.7
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.3
Multiplier: 14.29x
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on July 13?

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.85
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.4
Multiplier: 16.67x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on July 14?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.45
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: $0.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on July 14?

Implied probability: 5%
Current value: $0.5
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.5
Multiplier: 20.00x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.45
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 29.5%
Current value: $2.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $7.05
Multiplier: 3.39x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.05
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 31%
Current value: $3.1
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $6.9
Multiplier: 3.23x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 49.5%
Current value: $4.95
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $5.05
Multiplier: 2.02x
User PnL: $0.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.98
Multiplier: 500.00x
User PnL: -$3.79

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $0.25
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.76
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$0.09

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $10
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.12

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C or below on July 14?

Implied probability: 3%
Current value: $0.3
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.71
Multiplier: 33.90x
User PnL: -$0.01

No position

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $1.35
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $8.65
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $0.15

No position

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $10
Potential profit: $9.97
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$3.27

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.24

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.1%
Multiplier: 5.87x
User PnL: $22.28

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.69

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.47

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.38

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

Implied probability: 26.8%
Multiplier: 3.74x
User PnL: $20.37

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.68

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.17

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 13?

Implied probability: 97.5%
Multiplier: 1.03x
User PnL: $16.31

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.09

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.85

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 7, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

Ends Jul 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.7

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.27

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET

Ends Jun 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.59

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Ends Jun 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.41

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET

Ends Jun 20, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.37

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.29

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.26

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.25

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Ends Jun 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.07

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET