Yes position
Will Nigel Farage be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.44
- Potential payout
- $177.22
- Potential profit
- $176.78
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.61
Polymarket Trader
0xe36021235bb4537E913Fe05523883bC3F28E76f8-1725015015379
0xe36021235bb4537e913fe05523883bc3f28e76f8
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $17.35
- Realized PnL
- $75.43
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 21
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $63.33
- Potential profit
- $63.33
- User PnL
- -$7.5
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.6%
- Current value
- $7.78
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $42.23
- Multiplier
- 6.43x
- User PnL
- $3.58
Yes position
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $40
- Potential profit
- $40
- User PnL
- -$4.56
Yes position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 14%
- Current value
- $4.2
- Potential payout
- $30
- Potential profit
- $25.8
- Multiplier
- 7.14x
- User PnL
- -$0.3
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$6
Yes position
Will Matt Goodwin – Reform win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$5.5
No position
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$6.25
Yes position
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $25
- Potential profit
- $25
- User PnL
- -$2.48
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $24
- Potential profit
- $24
- User PnL
- -$7.2
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $22
- Potential profit
- $22
- User PnL
- -$5.06
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.2%
- Current value
- $0.24
- Potential payout
- $20.14
- Potential profit
- $19.9
- Multiplier
- 83.33x
- User PnL
- -$3.36
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.98
- Multiplier
- 1000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.22
Yes position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.01
- Potential payout
- $20
- Potential profit
- $19.99
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.19
No position
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6%
- Current value
- $0.89
- Potential payout
- $15
- Potential profit
- $14.11
- Multiplier
- 16.81x
- User PnL
- -$2.15
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $12
- Potential profit
- $12
- User PnL
- -$1.67
No position
Will Andy Burnham be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.4%
- Current value
- $0.82
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $10.29
- Multiplier
- 13.61x
- User PnL
- -$3.18
Yes position
Will the Green Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $10
- User PnL
- -$4.1
Yes position
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.2%
- Current value
- $0.32
- Potential payout
- $10
- Potential profit
- $9.69
- Multiplier
- 31.75x
- User PnL
- -$0.89
Yes position
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $6.95
- Potential profit
- $6.95
- User PnL
- -$1.11
No position
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $2.64
- Potential payout
- $2.78
- Potential profit
- $0.14
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.64
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $21.5
Yes position
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $8.29
No position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- $6.6
Yes position
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $6.6
Yes position
Will Israel finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5?
Ends May 17, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.7
Yes position
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $3.65
No position
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.45
Yes position
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.56
Yes position
Will Trump impose tariffs on the EU in the first 100 days?
Ends Apr 29, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.54
Yes position
Will a Republican win North Carolina Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.97
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5%
- Multiplier
- 20.00x
- User PnL
- $1.73
Yes position
Will a Republican win Georgia Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.71
Yes position
Will the Labour Party win the second-most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.7
No position
Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $1.33
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.2
Yes position
Will "Conclave" win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
Ends Mar 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.17
Yes position
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?
Ends Feb 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.95
Yes position
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
Ends May 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.81
Yes position
Will a Republican win Arizona Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 5, 2024- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.7
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- $0.65
Yes position
Will Reform win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?
Ends May 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.45
Yes position
Trump deportation executive order on Day 1?
Ends Jan 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.4
Yes position
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.32
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?Yes 12% 10 shares
- Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?No 20.3% 15 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?Yes 6% 12.08 shares
- Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by less than 3%?Yes 6.2% 14.55 shares
- Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Yes 7% 50 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?Yes 2.8% 112.39 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?Yes 15% 30 shares
- Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 45% 7.4 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 72% 2.78 shares
- Will Wes Streeting be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?No 27% 7.41 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Yes 28% 13.33 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 68% 10 shares