Polymarket Trader

Alive-beam

0xe3d0b1dedc659a448c971f7da565a0f9b2eb4d12

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $366.41
Realized PnL: $1.98K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

US government shutdown Saturday?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $525.83
Potential profit: $525.83
User PnL: -$74.9

Yes position

Boxing: Will Usyk win by Decision?

Ends Jul 20, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $357.5
Potential profit: $357.5
User PnL: -$200.2

No position

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

Ends Jun 26, 2026

Implied probability: 87.5%
Current value: $198.71
Potential payout: $227.1
Potential profit: $28.39
Multiplier: 1.14x
User PnL: $32.93

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $167.71
Potential payout: $168.55
Potential profit: $0.84
User PnL: $17.7

No position

Will "11.22.63" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 20, 2026)

Ends Jan 20, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $127.53
Potential profit: $127.53
User PnL: -$100.42

Tigers position

Tigers vs. Mariners

Ends Oct 18, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.86
User PnL: -$10

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?

Ends Apr 20, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $582.7

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?

Ends May 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $403.29

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $227.89

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $158.46

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30?

Ends Nov 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $86.93

Yes position

US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $81.56

Yes position

Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $75.86

No position

US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $65.94

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.39

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $44.01

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.71

No position

US forces enter Iran by March 14?

Ends Mar 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.11

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.42

No position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.2%
User PnL: $18.43

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?

Ends Apr 24, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.73

No position

Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.45

No position

US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.36

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.23

Yes position

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.03

No position

US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026?

Ends Feb 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.42

Yes position

Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.2

No position

US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.51

No position

US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.42

Yes position

US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $3.56

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?

No 73% 227.1 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

No 98.5% 168.53 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?

No 89% 337.08 shares
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 74.8% 301.41 shares
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

No 94.1% 242.81 shares
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?

No 86.5% 242.82 shares
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?

No 93% 210.41 shares
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Yes 51% 20 shares
Israel military action against Iranian Power Plant by April 30?

Yes 25% 20 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Yes 79% 100.31 shares
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?

Yes 70% 100.31 shares
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?

No 89.9% 111.23 shares