Yes position
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.9%
- Current value
- $257.6
- Potential payout
- $30.31K
- Potential profit
- $30.05K
- Multiplier
- 117.65x
- User PnL
- -$75.43
Polymarket Trader
Machaon
@0xMachaon
0xe3e4bded348f8608f322a598c19dbb3c42878d04
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $8.92K
- Realized PnL
- $31.96K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $625.06
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.38K
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $104.86
Yes position
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election?
Ends Apr 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $187.5
- Potential payout
- $5K
- Potential profit
- $4.81K
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$54.49
Yes position
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $10.45
- Potential payout
- $4.18K
- Potential profit
- $4.17K
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$52.72
Yes position
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
Ends Jun 2, 2026- Implied probability
- 59.5%
- Current value
- $1.78K
- Potential payout
- $3K
- Potential profit
- $1.21K
- Multiplier
- 1.68x
- User PnL
- -$195
Yes position
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends Oct 4, 2026- Implied probability
- 24.1%
- Current value
- $602.48
- Potential payout
- $2.5K
- Potential profit
- $1.9K
- Multiplier
- 4.15x
- User PnL
- -$200.47
Yes position
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 32%
- Current value
- $730.93
- Potential payout
- $2.28K
- Potential profit
- $1.55K
- Multiplier
- 3.13x
- User PnL
- -$18.68
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.5%
- Current value
- $55.24
- Potential payout
- $2.25K
- Potential profit
- $2.2K
- Multiplier
- 40.82x
- User PnL
- -$19.05
Yes position
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1%
- Current value
- $19.02
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.98K
- Multiplier
- 105.26x
- User PnL
- -$13.87
Yes position
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $1
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $2K
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$33.39
No position
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $1.53K
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $123.79
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $12.88
Yes position
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $10.04
- Potential payout
- $1.54K
- Potential profit
- $1.53K
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$51.74
Yes position
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 10.5%
- Current value
- $107.81
- Potential payout
- $1.03K
- Potential profit
- $918.98
- Multiplier
- 9.52x
- User PnL
- -$25.67
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.4%
- Current value
- $243.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $756.5
- Multiplier
- 4.11x
- User PnL
- -$10.5
Yes position
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 25.5%
- Current value
- $255
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $745
- Multiplier
- 3.92x
- User PnL
- -$65
Yes position
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.5%
- Current value
- $44.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $955.5
- Multiplier
- 22.47x
- User PnL
- -$7.5
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 24.6%
- Current value
- $245.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $754.5
- Multiplier
- 4.07x
- User PnL
- $3.5
Yes position
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 5.1%
- Current value
- $50.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $949.5
- Multiplier
- 19.80x
- User PnL
- $1.5
Yes position
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 15.8%
- Current value
- $157.5
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $842.5
- Multiplier
- 6.35x
- User PnL
- -$3.5
No position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $324.98
- Potential payout
- $999.95
- Potential profit
- $674.97
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- $55
No position
Will Valve add Cobblestone to the map pool by August 30?
Ends Aug 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $914.71
- Potential payout
- $999.68
- Potential profit
- $84.97
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- -$8.58
N
No position
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Current value
- $416.94
- Potential payout
- $600
- Potential profit
- $183.06
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- -$53.06
Yes position
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.7%
- Current value
- $153.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $346.75
- Multiplier
- 3.26x
- User PnL
- -$36.75
Yes position
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 38%
- Current value
- $190
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $310
- Multiplier
- 2.63x
- User PnL
- -$40
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.93K
No position
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $430B on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.04K
Yes position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.81K
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.66K
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before March?
Ends Feb 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.49K
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.26K
No position
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in November?
Ends Nov 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.23K
Yes position
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.11K
Yes position
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election?
Ends Apr 13, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.1K
Yes position
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 50% in February?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
No position
US recession in 2025?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.08K
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1K
Yes position
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 4?
Ends Feb 4, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $953.07
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $930
No position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $897.8
No position
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $852.98
No position
Will voter turnout in the 2025 Romanian presidential election be 12m or more?
Ends May 18, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $852
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $824.9
No position
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $804.11
No position
Will MicroStrategy hold 600k+ BTC before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $735.06
No position
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $710
No position
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $705
No position
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $670
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 40% 614.75 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 23% 60 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 21% 225.89 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 39% 187.84 shares
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Yes 64% 200 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 37% 220 shares
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Yes 63% 215.46 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 14% 29 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 31% 164.67 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 29% 1,299.91 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 28% 31.07 shares
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?Yes 28% 205.93 shares