Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $25.62K
- Potential payout
- $28.31K
- Potential profit
- $2.69K
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $3.03K
Polymarket Trader
TheRealWarMonger
0xe472ce6be1fb4673d6155de37e414ead8bace7eb
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $38.98K
- Realized PnL
- $112.6K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $3.41K
- Potential payout
- $3.61K
- Potential profit
- $198.29
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $391.52
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- Current value
- $3.37K
- Potential payout
- $3.37K
- Potential profit
- $8.44
- User PnL
- $5.06
Yes position
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $442.8
- Potential payout
- $2.4K
- Potential profit
- $1.96K
- Multiplier
- 5.42x
- User PnL
- $46.8
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 77.5%
- Current value
- $1.39K
- Potential payout
- $1.8K
- Potential profit
- $405
- Multiplier
- 1.29x
- User PnL
- -$64
No position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.2%
- Current value
- $1.58K
- Potential payout
- $1.64K
- Potential profit
- $62.32
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $98.48
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 54.5%
- Current value
- $708.49
- Potential payout
- $1.3K
- Potential profit
- $591.5
- Multiplier
- 1.83x
- User PnL
- -$70.5
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Current value
- $493.25
- Potential payout
- $500
- Potential profit
- $6.75
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $18.25
Yes position
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $247.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $22.5
Yes position
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.9%
- Current value
- $21.62
- Potential payout
- $273.71
- Potential profit
- $252.09
- Multiplier
- 12.66x
- User PnL
- -$12.59
No position
Kash Patel out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $242.81
- Potential payout
- $262.5
- Potential profit
- $19.69
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $1.31
No position
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?
Ends Jun 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $192.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $7.9
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $0.5
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $105
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $95
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $21
No position
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- Current value
- $198.1
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $1.9
- User PnL
- $19.7
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $195.2
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $4.8
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $7.1
No position
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $198.6
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $1.4
- User PnL
- $3.4
No position
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.1%
- Current value
- $168
- Potential payout
- $174.91
- Potential profit
- $6.91
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $21.08
Yes position
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting?
Ends Jul 23, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.5%
- Current value
- $7.51
- Potential payout
- $137.89
- Potential profit
- $130.37
- Multiplier
- 18.35x
- User PnL
- -$52.49
No position
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 45.5%
- Current value
- $61.42
- Potential payout
- $134.98
- Potential profit
- $73.56
- Multiplier
- 2.20x
- User PnL
- -$38.58
Yes position
Will Trump and Putin not meet?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $117.89
- Potential payout
- $121.92
- Potential profit
- $4.02
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $1.34
Yes position
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 96.7%
- Current value
- $96.65
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $3.35
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- -$0.25
No position
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
Ends Oct 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 72%
- Current value
- $72
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $28
- Multiplier
- 1.39x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95.7%
- Current value
- $51.7
- Potential payout
- $54.05
- Potential profit
- $2.35
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $5.76
Yes position
French election called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.4
- Potential payout
- $49.92
- Potential profit
- $49.52
- Multiplier
- 125.00x
- User PnL
- -$18.01
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $25.13K
Yes position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.58K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.45K
Yes position
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $9.35K
Yes position
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $7.49K
No position
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.88K
Yes position
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?
Ends May 27, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $4.12K
Yes position
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.2K
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3.14K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- User PnL
- $2.92K
Yes position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.91K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8K
No position
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.62K
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.36K
No position
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?
Ends Apr 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.34K
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.26K
No position
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.99K
Yes position
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting?
Ends Jun 11, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.73K
Yes position
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
Ends May 29, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.72K
Yes position
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.64K
Yes position
ECB rate hike in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.52K
Yes position
Bank of England increases interest rates after March 2026 meeting?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $1.5K
Yes position
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.48K
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
Ends May 24, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.45K
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 99.7% 5,000 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 99.7% 700 shares
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?No 99.7% 900 shares
- Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?No 90.3% 200 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No 0.1% 10,000 shares
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?No 0.1% 10,000 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.1% 2,970 shares
- Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?No 68.5% 100 shares
- New pandemic in 2026?No 88% 15.71 shares
- Netanyahu out by June 30?No 99.3% 1,000.16 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.2% 1,000 shares
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?Yes 0.2% 4,465 shares