Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.8%
- Current value
- $133.42
- Potential payout
- $3.56K
- Potential profit
- $3.42K
- Multiplier
- 26.67x
- User PnL
- -$223.59
Polymarket Trader
Danny283847490191
0xe495f596819a0554bd35cfa548ce5de04b01c165
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.56K
- Realized PnL
- $2.83K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $270
- Potential payout
- $2K
- Potential profit
- $1.73K
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$350
No position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 27%
- Current value
- $270
- Potential payout
- $1K
- Potential profit
- $730
- Multiplier
- 3.70x
- User PnL
- $10
No position
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $772.75
- Potential payout
- $786.52
- Potential profit
- $13.76
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $72.75
No position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $77
- Potential payout
- $80
- Potential profit
- $3
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $19.4
Yes position
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $34.52
- Potential payout
- $36.34
- Potential profit
- $1.82
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $4.88
Yes position
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 1.8%
- Current value
- $0.39
- Potential payout
- $22.05
- Potential profit
- $21.66
- Multiplier
- 57.14x
- User PnL
- $0.06
Yes position
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.2%
- Current value
- $3.99
- Potential payout
- $7.5
- Potential profit
- $3.51
- Multiplier
- 1.88x
- User PnL
- $2.64
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.14K
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in March 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $520.93
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $216.28
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $171.99
No position
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $151.56
Yes position
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
Ends Apr 28, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $110.37
Yes position
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $84.74
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $74.6
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in April 2026?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $72.88
No position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in March 2026?
Ends Apr 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $68
No position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $67.56
No position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?
Ends Jun 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $39.4
No position
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in April 2026?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.16
Yes position
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Ends Nov 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 42.5%
- Multiplier
- 2.35x
- User PnL
- $19.65
No position
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.91
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 71%
- Multiplier
- 1.41x
- User PnL
- $8.89
No position
Will April 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?
Ends May 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.86
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $6.14
Yes position
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $710b on March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $5.33
No position
Government shutdown on Saturday?
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.25
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?
Ends Mar 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $3.51
No position
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in February 2026?
Ends Mar 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $2.91
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?Yes 10% 27.91 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?Yes 12.6% 200 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?Yes 14.7% 1,200 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?Yes 98.6% 152.06 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?Yes 13.9% 80 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026?No 72% 80 shares
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?Yes 0.2% 1,083.68 shares
- Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record?No 89% 786.52 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in May 2026?No 99.7% 200 shares
- Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2026?No 9% 7 shares
- Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?Yes 1.1% 1,281.12 shares
- Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026?Yes 9% 505.22 shares