No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $1.05K
- Potential payout
- $1.17K
- Potential profit
- $123.28
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $78.84
Polymarket Trader
alwaysbear
0xe4b6e9e514f2f2e1c73bf59290f10acc7f0689a5
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.41K
- Realized PnL
- $746.7
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $22.84
- Potential payout
- $268.68
- Potential profit
- $245.85
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$77.16
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $245.99
- Potential profit
- $245.99
- User PnL
- -$170
Yes position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $155.84
- Potential profit
- $155.84
- User PnL
- -$120
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.9%
- Current value
- $148.47
- Potential payout
- $150.13
- Potential profit
- $1.65
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $7.46
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $141.24
- Potential profit
- $141.24
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $116.28
- Potential profit
- $116.28
- User PnL
- -$100
No position
US recession by end of 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Current value
- $61.79
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $9.64
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $11.79
No position
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $43.48
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.87
- Potential payout
- $43.48
- Potential profit
- $37.61
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$14.13
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.3%
- Current value
- $21.08
- Potential payout
- $21.46
- Potential profit
- $0.38
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.08
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.3%
- Current value
- $20.69
- Potential payout
- $20.83
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- User PnL
- $0.69
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Current value
- $14.39
- Potential payout
- $16.08
- Potential profit
- $1.69
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $2.65
Yes position
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $15.79
- Potential profit
- $15.79
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $14.29
- Potential profit
- $14.29
- User PnL
- -$10
No position
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Current value
- $13.03
- Potential payout
- $14.08
- Potential profit
- $1.06
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $3.03
No position
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 95%
- Current value
- $12.08
- Potential payout
- $12.72
- Potential profit
- $0.64
- Multiplier
- 1.05x
- User PnL
- $0.38
No position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.5%
- Current value
- $11.52
- Potential payout
- $12.2
- Potential profit
- $0.67
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.52
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 94.4%
- Current value
- $11.1
- Potential payout
- $11.76
- Potential profit
- $0.66
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $1.1
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $11.35
- Potential payout
- $11.63
- Potential profit
- $0.28
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $1.35
Yes position
Will Trump and Xi not shake hands during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $11.11
- Potential profit
- $11.11
- User PnL
- -$1
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.88
- Potential profit
- $9.88
- User PnL
- -$8.25
Yes position
Will Trump say "Farm" or "Farmer" during Chinese State Banquet?
Ends May 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.62
- Potential profit
- $9.62
- User PnL
- -$5
Yes position
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 8.5%
- Current value
- $0.47
- Potential payout
- $5.56
- Potential profit
- $5.08
- Multiplier
- 11.76x
- User PnL
- -$0.53
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $86.32
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $74.73
No position
Trump out as President before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 92.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.08x
- User PnL
- $60.12
No position
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $49.99
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.2
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $35.98
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $33.46
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.97
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 19?
Ends Mar 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.61
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $28.61
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.37
No position
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.34
Yes position
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.4
No position
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $22.45
No position
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $21.95
Yes position
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20.82
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $18.59
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 89.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.12x
- User PnL
- $17.19
No position
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.67
No position
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.12
Yes position
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.99
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?
Ends May 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.46
Yes position
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.73
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET
Ends Mar 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.63
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No 94% 139.37 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No 96% 10.42 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in July?No 96% 10.42 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?No 86% 11.63 shares
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?No 93% 10.75 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July?No 93.2% 21.46 shares
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?No 85% 11.76 shares
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 98.7% 23.03 shares
- Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No 97.4% 84.15 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 81% 88.88 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?No 83.5% 9.88 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?No 97.6% 480.69 shares