0xe50c19A43bDd336B171e481E5630dc5e8F73D88C-1780110031415

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.22
Potential payout: $89.99
Potential profit: $89.77
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.5

Yes position

Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $2.83
Potential payout: $80
Potential profit: $77.17
Multiplier: 28.25x
User PnL: $1.97

No position

Will Cinde Warmington win the 2026 New Hampshire Governor Democratic primary election?

Ends Sep 8, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $1.86
Potential payout: $60
Potential profit: $58.14
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$0.39

Yes position

Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.86
Potential payout: $51.85
Potential profit: $50.99
Multiplier: 60.61x
User PnL: -$4.11

No position

Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 23.7%
Current value: $11.83
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $38.18
Multiplier: 4.23x
User PnL: $2.32

Yes position

Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?

Implied probability: 18.5%
Current value: $9.25
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $40.75
Multiplier: 5.41x
User PnL: -$1.75

Yes position

Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?

Implied probability: 2.3%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $48.88
Multiplier: 44.44x
User PnL: -$2.57

Yes position

Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 7%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $46.53
Multiplier: 14.39x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?

Implied probability: 11.1%
Current value: $5.53
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $44.48
Multiplier: 9.05x
User PnL: $2.43

No position

Labour leadership election scheduled by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $49.88
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$1.31

Yes position

Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 29.7%
Current value: $14.04
Potential payout: $47.26
Potential profit: $33.22
Multiplier: 3.37x
User PnL: -$0.55

No position

Will Tom Tiffany win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 11, 2026

Implied probability: 2.5%
Current value: $1.1
Potential payout: $45
Potential profit: $43.9
Multiplier: 40.82x
User PnL: -$0.41

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $44.83
Potential profit: $44.69
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$4.88

Yes position

Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $2.7
Potential payout: $41.51
Potential profit: $38.81
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.67

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 14.9%
Current value: $5.96
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $34.04
Multiplier: 6.71x
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Pacifica FDV above $1B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 8.7%
Current value: $3.48
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $36.52
Multiplier: 11.51x
User PnL: $3.17

No position

Will Cap launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $40
User PnL: -$0.63

Yes position

Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 6,000 in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Current value: $1.64
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $38.36
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: -$0.86

No position

Will the Democratic Party win the UT-01 House seat?

Ends Nov 4, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $36.2
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: $0.6

No position

Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $6.6
Potential payout: $40
Potential profit: $33.4
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$3.3

Yes position

Will Trump Mobile release a phone by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $13.11
Potential payout: $38.55
Potential profit: $25.44
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: -$10.24

No position

Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?

Implied probability: 32.5%
Current value: $12.36
Potential payout: $38.05
Potential profit: $25.68
Multiplier: 3.08x
User PnL: -$0.53

No position

Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

Ends Aug 4, 2026

Implied probability: 23%
Current value: $8.74
Potential payout: $38
Potential profit: $29.26
Multiplier: 4.35x
User PnL: $1.22

No position

Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026?

Implied probability: 16%
Current value: $5.6
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $29.4
Multiplier: 6.25x
User PnL: -$0.55

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 76.5%
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $38.5

Yes position

Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?

Implied probability: 32%
Multiplier: 3.13x
User PnL: $12.65

No position

Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 52.5%
Multiplier: 1.90x
User PnL: $7.45

No position

Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?

Ends Sep 15, 2026

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $7.2

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Implied probability: 30.5%
Multiplier: 3.28x
User PnL: $6.98

No position

Will MagicBlock launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: $6.35

No position

Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 42.5%
Multiplier: 2.35x
User PnL: $6.1

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $5.4

Yes position

Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027?

Implied probability: 24%
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $5.1

No position

Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027?

Ends Jul 1, 2027

Implied probability: 12.3%
Multiplier: 8.16x
User PnL: $5

Yes position

Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?

Implied probability: 4.1%
Multiplier: 24.39x
User PnL: $4.9

Yes position

Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Implied probability: 12.5%
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: $4.4

Yes position

Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 38.2%
Multiplier: 2.62x
User PnL: $4.31

Yes position

Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?

Implied probability: 26.5%
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $4.2

No position

Will Concrete launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: $4.1

Yes position

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 33.5%
Multiplier: 2.99x
User PnL: $3.75

Yes position

Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Implied probability: 10.2%
Multiplier: 9.80x
User PnL: $3.55

No position

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $3.5

No position

Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?

Implied probability: 40%
Multiplier: 2.50x
User PnL: $3.42

Yes position

Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch?

Implied probability: 7.1%
Multiplier: 14.08x
User PnL: $3.13

No position

Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 13.5%
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: $3

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?