riterzad

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.97
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 17.9%
Current value: $3.57
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.43
Multiplier: 5.60x
User PnL: -$6.43

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.87
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.92

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $0.17
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.83
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.86
Multiplier: 142.86x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.89
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Kazakhstan by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.97
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.02

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.8
Multiplier: 100.00x
User PnL: -$0.85

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.81
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.86

Yes position

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 5.7%
Current value: $1.13
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.87
Multiplier: 17.70x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Real Madrid?

Ends Sep 2, 2026

Implied probability: 27.5%
Current value: $3.84
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $10.16
Multiplier: 3.64x
User PnL: $3.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 34%
Current value: $4.76
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $9.24
Multiplier: 2.94x
User PnL: $3.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 11?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on July 11?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $13.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.99

Yes position

Will LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?

Ends Oct 31, 2026

Implied probability: 29.8%
Current value: $4.16
Potential payout: $13.99
Potential profit: $9.83
Multiplier: 3.36x
User PnL: -$2.83

Yes position

Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 97.8%
Current value: $11.82
Potential payout: $12.09
Potential profit: $0.27
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 24%
Current value: $1.69
Potential payout: $7.03
Potential profit: $5.34
Multiplier: 4.17x
User PnL: $1.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.03
Potential profit: $7.03
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on July 12?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.03
Potential profit: $7.03
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.51

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.29

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET

Ends Apr 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $301

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $144

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $117

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.99

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $113.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $106

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $67.56

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $50

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Ends Apr 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33

Yes position

Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.57

Yes position

Will no listed leader be out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: $24.48

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Ends May 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19

Yes position

Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.57

Yes position

Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $18.57

No position

Will Pierre Gasly get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?