Polymarket Trader

Ernesti

0xe5aa14cf499c1252135e91592b3680c951b11e73

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $895.52
Realized PnL: -$738.43
Win rate: 28.6%
Open positions: 6
Closed positions: 7
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Ends Jul 30, 2026

Implied probability: 98.3%
Current value: $895.52
Potential payout: $911.01
Potential profit: $15.49
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $10.52

Yes position

Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $135.93
Potential profit: $135.93
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Solana Up or Down - March 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42.48
Potential profit: $42.48
User PnL: -$16.99

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $24.99
User PnL: -$11.74

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.16
Potential profit: $16.16
User PnL: -$9.86

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5.6
Potential profit: $5.6
User PnL: -$3.14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.19

No position

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.59

Yes position

Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.05

Yes position

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$56.63

Yes position

US strikes Iraq by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$111.48

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$202.67

No position

Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$369.38

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yes 97.9% 485.1 shares
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal?

Yes 96.3% 425.91 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET

Up 56% 5.42 shares
Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Yes 1.7% 190.67 shares
Will Trump visit China by April 30?

Yes 31.4% 190.68 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?

No 44.5% 24.65 shares
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?

Yes 0.6% 833.33 shares
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 3, 2026?

Yes 1.2% 833.33 shares
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3?

Yes 7.4% 135.93 shares
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET

Down 40% 41.86 shares
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?

No 0.9% 1,920.46 shares
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?

No 16.8% 1,110.69 shares