Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 6.5%
- Current value
- $114.71
- Potential payout
- $1.76K
- Potential profit
- $1.65K
- Multiplier
- 15.38x
- User PnL
- -$185.29
Polymarket Trader
Pascalsparlay
0xe6aa5521529b5b7ee74bf25085c434587dc1bb63
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $137.97
- Realized PnL
- $5.01
- Win rate
- 75%
- Open positions
- 8
- Closed positions
- 4
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $250
- Potential profit
- $250
- User PnL
- -$100
Yes position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.6%
- Current value
- $2.77
- Potential payout
- $76.92
- Potential profit
- $74.15
- Multiplier
- 27.78x
- User PnL
- -$27.23
Yes position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35.5%
- Current value
- $20.49
- Potential payout
- $57.72
- Potential profit
- $37.23
- Multiplier
- 2.82x
- User PnL
- -$4.51
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET
Ends Feb 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $9.98
- Potential profit
- $9.98
- User PnL
- -$1
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.48
- Potential profit
- $4.48
- User PnL
- -$1.97
Yes position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $4.17
- Potential profit
- $4.17
- User PnL
- -$2
No position
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $3.33
- Potential profit
- $3.33
- User PnL
- -$1
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $20
Yes position
Iran strike on US military by February 28?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.09
No position
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0.03
No position
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 35%
- Multiplier
- 2.86x
- User PnL
- -$15.11
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- US forces enter Iran by March 31?Yes 40% 250 shares
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?Yes 43.3% 57.72 shares
- Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Yes 48% 4.17 shares
- Iran strike on US military by February 28?Yes 98.4% 1.11 shares
- Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?No 30% 3.33 shares
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?Yes 39% 76.92 shares
- Iran strike on US military by February 28?Yes 90% 1.11 shares
- Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ETDown 44% 4.41 shares
- Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?No 11.9% 41.08 shares
- US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?No 99.5% 5.03 shares
- Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?No 48.7% 41.09 shares
- US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?Yes 20% 25 shares