No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.5%
- Current value
- $1.59K
- Potential payout
- $1.65K
- Potential profit
- $57.75
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $185.75
Polymarket Trader
Lavitacontinua
0xe6aa9959ac014898f9f2557161365041a4bc993c
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $7.84K
- Realized PnL
- $4.26K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $1.17K
- Potential payout
- $1.4K
- Potential profit
- $230.98
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- -$38.67
No position
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 64.5%
- Current value
- $552.75
- Potential payout
- $856.97
- Potential profit
- $304.23
- Multiplier
- 1.55x
- User PnL
- $144.37
Yes position
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.4
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $799.6
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
Yes position
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.4
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $799.6
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.2
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
Ends Aug 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $596
- Potential payout
- $800
- Potential profit
- $204
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- -$12
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $667.08
- Potential payout
- $753.77
- Potential profit
- $86.68
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $118.69
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 52.5%
- Current value
- $378.73
- Potential payout
- $721.4
- Potential profit
- $342.66
- Multiplier
- 1.90x
- User PnL
- $68.96
No position
Israel closes its airspace by July 15?
Ends Jul 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 91.5%
- Current value
- $640.5
- Potential payout
- $700
- Potential profit
- $59.5
- Multiplier
- 1.09x
- User PnL
- $15.5
N
No position
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 73.5%
- Current value
- $477.75
- Potential payout
- $650
- Potential profit
- $172.25
- Multiplier
- 1.36x
- User PnL
- -$52.25
No position
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
Ends Aug 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $485.99
- Potential payout
- $619.1
- Potential profit
- $133.11
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$7.01
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.4%
- Current value
- $312.09
- Potential payout
- $323.75
- Potential profit
- $11.66
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $51.37
No position
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 70.5%
- Current value
- $215.01
- Potential payout
- $304.98
- Potential profit
- $89.97
- Multiplier
- 1.42x
- User PnL
- $8.57
Yes position
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $300
- User PnL
- -$3.3
Yes position
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $1.95
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $298.05
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.75
No position
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $208.22
- Potential payout
- $249.37
- Potential profit
- $41.15
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $16.21
No position
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 88.5%
- Current value
- $207.98
- Potential payout
- $235
- Potential profit
- $27.03
- Multiplier
- 1.13x
- User PnL
- $46.73
Yes position
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.8%
- Current value
- $17.83
- Potential payout
- $230
- Potential profit
- $212.18
- Multiplier
- 12.90x
- User PnL
- -$2.52
No position
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 74.5%
- Current value
- $149
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $51
- Multiplier
- 1.34x
- User PnL
- $3
Yes position
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $199.99
- Potential profit
- $199.99
- User PnL
- -$161.99
Yes position
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.5%
- Current value
- $0.64
- Potential payout
- $142.86
- Potential profit
- $142.21
- Multiplier
- 222.22x
- User PnL
- -$0.36
No position
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 55%
- Current value
- $65.89
- Potential payout
- $119.8
- Potential profit
- $53.91
- Multiplier
- 1.82x
- User PnL
- $4.19
No position
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.9%
- Current value
- $103.53
- Potential payout
- $105.8
- Potential profit
- $2.27
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $3.02
No position
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $102.13
- Potential profit
- $102.13
- User PnL
- -$65.59
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $694.19
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $416.57
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $376.31
No position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $321.23
No position
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98.7%
- Multiplier
- 1.01x
- User PnL
- $282.36
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $242.23
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $235.54
No position
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.1%
- User PnL
- $211.99
Yes position
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
Ends Apr 7, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $174.65
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?
Ends May 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $154.29
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $136.97
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $120.85
No position
Iran leadership change by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $119.79
No position
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $103.74
No position
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $101.3
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.9%
- User PnL
- $79.09
No position
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $74.7
No position
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?
Ends May 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $71.1
No position
Iran leadership change by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.5%
- User PnL
- $69.13
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $68.45
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $64.05
No position
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $56.09
No position
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?
Ends Jun 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $48.61
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.4%
- User PnL
- $34.57
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 52% 100 shares
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?No 49% 10 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?No 80% 391.25 shares
- Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?No 95.7% 323.75 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?No 79% 227.85 shares
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?No 76% 300 shares
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?No 69% 5 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 87% 919.54 shares
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?No 85% 209.41 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 79% 300 shares
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No 77% 249.37 shares
- Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 0.7% 142.86 shares