Moti.havlin

Implied probability: 1%
Current value: $190
Potential payout: $20K
Potential profit: $19.81K
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: $100

Yes position

Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $58.5
Potential payout: $13K
Potential profit: $12.94K
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$6.5

Yes position

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $155.06
Potential payout: $4.49K
Potential profit: $4.34K
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$3.01

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.27K
Potential profit: $3.27K
User PnL: -$104

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $158.65
Potential payout: $1.67K
Potential profit: $1.51K
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$91.85

Yes position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $409.1
Potential profit: $404.19
Multiplier: 83.33x
User PnL: -$54.54

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $279.84
Potential profit: $279.84
User PnL: -$11

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $210.91
Potential profit: $210.91
User PnL: -$12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $167.22
Potential profit: $167.22
User PnL: -$90.96

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $150.4
Potential profit: $150.4
User PnL: -$11.6

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $140
Potential profit: $140
User PnL: -$32.02

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $130.91
Potential profit: $130.91
User PnL: -$35

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $115.46
Potential profit: $115.46
User PnL: -$60

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.71
Potential profit: $90.71
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.33
Potential profit: $71.33
User PnL: -$22.95

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $65.89
Potential profit: $65.89
User PnL: -$31.08

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $43.83
Potential profit: $43.83
User PnL: -$23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $36.31
Potential profit: $36.31
User PnL: -$13

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.27
Potential profit: $34.27
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.32
Potential profit: $26.32
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25.64
Potential profit: $25.64
User PnL: -$10

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $20.41
Potential profit: $20.41
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.86
User PnL: -$10

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.67
Potential profit: $16.67
User PnL: -$6

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: $479.23

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.21

Yes position

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 39.8%
Multiplier: 2.52x
User PnL: $155.94

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $41.06

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.94

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.44

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.46

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.18

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.13

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $12

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.41

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $9.23

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.87

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.82

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.5

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.78

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.3

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.5

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.43

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET