0xe6e5...8e81

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $2.96
Potential payout: $493
Potential profit: $490.04
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$33.04

Yes position

Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?

Ends Aug 18, 2026

Implied probability: 3.8%
Current value: $2.49
Potential payout: $66.47
Potential profit: $63.98
Multiplier: 26.67x
User PnL: -$2.51

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.39
Potential payout: $64.92
Potential profit: $64.53
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$5.61

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $38.3
Potential payout: $38.49
Potential profit: $0.19
User PnL: $15.5

No position

Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $38.08
Potential payout: $38.31
Potential profit: $0.23
User PnL: -$0

Yes position

Will GameStop acquire eBay?

Implied probability: 13.5%
Current value: $4.91
Potential payout: $36.4
Potential profit: $31.48
Multiplier: 7.41x
User PnL: -$1.09

Yes position

Will Trump post "UFC" on Truth Social this week?

Ends Jun 28, 2026

Implied probability: 98.4%
Current value: $31.55
Potential payout: $32.06
Potential profit: $0.51
Multiplier: 1.02x
User PnL: $1.61

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.14
Potential payout: $27.04
Potential profit: $26.9
Multiplier: 200.00x
User PnL: -$0.87

Yes position

Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $22.22
Potential profit: $22.09
Multiplier: 166.67x
User PnL: -$1.87

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.1%
Current value: $21.41
Potential payout: $21.61
Potential profit: $0.21
User PnL: $1.08

Yes position

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $1.15
Potential payout: $20.83
Potential profit: $19.69
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.85

Yes position

Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 2.6%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $17.23
Potential profit: $16.78
Multiplier: 38.46x
User PnL: -$1.55

Yes position

U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $3.42
Potential payout: $15.21
Potential profit: $11.79
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$2.58

No position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 85.5%
Current value: $11.2
Potential payout: $13.1
Potential profit: $1.9
Multiplier: 1.17x
User PnL: $1.2

Yes position

US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $12.71
Potential payout: $12.73
Potential profit: $0.02
User PnL: -$0.01

Yes position

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.4%
Current value: $0.38
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.73
Multiplier: 29.41x
User PnL: -$0.62

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $0.72
Potential payout: $11.11
Potential profit: $10.39
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$0.28

Yes position

Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30?

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $0.21
Potential payout: $10.67
Potential profit: $10.45
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$1.79

Yes position

Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?

Implied probability: 35.5%
Current value: $3.78
Potential payout: $10.65
Potential profit: $6.87
Multiplier: 2.82x
User PnL: -$3.22

Yes position

Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $1.54
Potential payout: $9.96
Potential profit: $8.42
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$1.46

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $9.4
Potential payout: $9.48
Potential profit: $0.08
User PnL: $1.28

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $8.33
Potential profit: $8.28
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $1.12
Potential payout: $7.69
Potential profit: $6.58
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $0.12

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $177.03

Juan Diaz position

UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $52.52

No position

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $36.93

Cody Brundage position

UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $31.14

Luis Gurule position

UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims)

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.95

Yes position

Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.44

Jim Miller position

UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.44

Yes position

Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.7

Sean Brady position

UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card)

Ends May 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.21

No position

Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $15.16

Yes position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.18

No position

Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.75

No position

Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.21

No position

Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County?

Ends May 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.81

Yes position

Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $8.48

Perry position

MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $7.38

No position

Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.19

No position

Will Trump say "Uranium" this week?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.25

Yes position

Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $5.21

Yes position

Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.89

Yes position

Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30?