No position
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $299.85
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $0.15
- User PnL
- $48.85
Polymarket Trader
manys
@trowbit
0xe7dbb09bef3e874d0a9d79d1a60e6c14df35feb0
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $1.76K
- Realized PnL
- $7.54K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 15
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 158m and 171m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 18.5%
- Current value
- $55.5
- Potential payout
- $299.98
- Potential profit
- $244.49
- Multiplier
- 5.41x
- User PnL
- -$55
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 79%
- Current value
- $159.61
- Potential payout
- $202.04
- Potential profit
- $42.43
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- $68.92
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 67.5%
- Current value
- $135
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $65
- Multiplier
- 1.48x
- User PnL
- $13
No position
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $175
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $25
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $3
No position
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 98%
- Current value
- $195.9
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $4.1
- Multiplier
- 1.02x
- User PnL
- $46.9
No position
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 84.5%
- Current value
- $169
- Potential payout
- $200
- Potential profit
- $31
- Multiplier
- 1.18x
- User PnL
- $47
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 72.5%
- Current value
- $144.98
- Potential payout
- $199.97
- Potential profit
- $54.99
- Multiplier
- 1.38x
- User PnL
- $19
No position
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $123.75
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $26.25
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- -$8.25
No position
GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 93.5%
- Current value
- $140.25
- Potential payout
- $150
- Potential profit
- $9.75
- Multiplier
- 1.07x
- User PnL
- $3.75
Yes position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Current value
- $53.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $46.5
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- -$8.5
Yes position
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- Current value
- $99.95
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $0.05
- User PnL
- $25.95
Yes position
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 7.9%
- Current value
- $4.35
- Potential payout
- $55
- Potential profit
- $50.66
- Multiplier
- 12.66x
- User PnL
- $2.59
Yes position
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 10%
- Current value
- $5
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $45
- Multiplier
- 10.00x
- User PnL
- $0
Yes position
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 4.9%
- Current value
- $2.43
- Potential payout
- $50
- Potential profit
- $47.58
- Multiplier
- 20.62x
- User PnL
- $0.63
Resolved Context
Closed positions
No position
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 3rd Weekend Box Office be less than 40m?
Ends Jan 5, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $655.01
No position
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $520
No position
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $514.34
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 20?
Ends Nov 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $510.06
Yes position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 23?
Ends Nov 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $450.39
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 9?
Ends Dec 9, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $410
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 20?
Ends Nov 20, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $389.67
Yes position
Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?
Ends Mar 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.42
Yes position
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?
Ends Dec 7, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $290.37
Yes position
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?
Ends Jun 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $288
No position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $257.22
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 3?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $252.28
Yes position
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 400m by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $250
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $84,000 November 17-23?
Ends Nov 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $247
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on December 8?
Ends Dec 8, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $238.84
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $238.73
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $236.79
Yes position
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?
Ends Jun 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $232.57
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 2?
Ends Dec 2, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $226.3
No position
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on November 21?
Ends Nov 21, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $225.77
No position
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $210
No position
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $203.77
No position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 5?
Ends Dec 5, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $193.66
Yes position
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 3?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $185.35
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?Yes 0.2% 5.41 shares
- Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43m?Yes 0.3% 171.91 shares
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes 10% 13 shares
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9?Yes 92% 10 shares
- Will Claude Mythos be released on June 10?Yes 0.7% 110 shares
- Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027?No 6% 100 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8?Yes 0.4% 641.49 shares
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 8?Yes 0.5% 130.13 shares
- Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m?No 33.3% 81.77 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?No 87.4% 52 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?No 20% 52 shares
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?Yes 85% 300 shares