Polymarket Trader

AmericaOnly

0xe7ec1224a01d96d86021eb630c76376b57e79dda

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $266.71
Realized PnL: $1.37K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $5K
Potential profit: $5K
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $92.67
Potential payout: $2.69K
Potential profit: $2.59K
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$7.33

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 7?

Ends Mar 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.17K
Potential profit: $1.17K
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?

Ends Mar 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1K
Potential profit: $1K
User PnL: -$4

Yes position

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6%
Current value: $41.37
Potential payout: $695.37
Potential profit: $653.99
Multiplier: 16.81x
User PnL: -$18.62

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $477.22
Potential profit: $477.22
User PnL: -$114.55

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $465.67
Potential profit: $465.67
User PnL: -$2.67

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $285.71
Potential profit: $285.71
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $281.66
Potential profit: $281.66
User PnL: -$7

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $272.73
Potential profit: $272.73
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $182.68
Potential profit: $182.68
User PnL: -$58.81

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $87.72
Potential payout: $180.86
Potential profit: $93.14
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: -$12.28

Yes position

Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting?

Ends Dec 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $16.45
Potential payout: $131.6
Potential profit: $115.15
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$18.18

Yes position

US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?

Ends Feb 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $11.15
Potential payout: $89.24
Potential profit: $78.08
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$11.86

Yes position

Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $85.07
Potential profit: $85.07
User PnL: -$18

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $70
Potential profit: $70
User PnL: -$4.97

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.77
Potential profit: $54.77
User PnL: -$4.24

Yes position

Israel strikes Iran by January 13, 2026?

Ends Jan 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3

Yes position

Kash Patel out by April 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $35
Potential profit: $35
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $27.78
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $17.34
Potential payout: $22.67
Potential profit: $5.33
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $0.34

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by April 30?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $344.54

No position

Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $192.53

Yes position

Biden drops out in July?

Ends Jul 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $151.37

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.96

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $89.43

No position

Will Joe Biden win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?

Ends Aug 18, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $84.04

Yes position

Biden drops out of presidential race?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.83

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55.32

Yes position

Israel military response against Iran by Friday?

Ends Oct 25, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.5

Yes position

US forces enter Iran by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.86

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $26.85

Yes position

Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.73

Yes position

GOP wins popular vote by 1-2%?

Ends Jan 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21

Yes position

Will the Director of Secret Service be fired/resign?

Ends Aug 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.52

Yes position

NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: $17.33

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 19.5%
Multiplier: 5.13x
User PnL: $15.74

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.85

Yes position

Will Josh Shapiro be the 2024 Democratic VP nominee?

Ends Aug 22, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $14.72

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.17

No position

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.01

Yes position

Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2024 Republican VP nomination?

Ends Sep 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $12.18

Yes position

Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $11.09

No position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026?

Ends Jun 18, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $10.06

Yes position

Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $6.05

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

No 16.4% 60.24 shares
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 3.7% 2,686.16 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

No 16.6% 60.24 shares
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 83.4% 238.66 shares
Anthropic IPO before 2027?

Yes 75% 22.67 shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Yes 12.6% 35.57 shares
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?

Yes 21% 23.81 shares
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Yes 55.3% 180.86 shares
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?

Yes 22.5% 22.22 shares
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?

Yes 95.4% 29.4 shares
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?

Yes 97.5% 23.52 shares
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?

Yes 97.8% 65.95 shares