No position
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 62.5%
- Current value
- $337.95
- Potential payout
- $540.72
- Potential profit
- $202.77
- Multiplier
- 1.60x
- User PnL
- $53.91
Polymarket Trader
0xe804...419b
0xe804783997edfd41b98010a439f580d8756f419b
Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section
- Open value
- $369.74
- Realized PnL
- -$342.45
- Win rate
- 40%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 20
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 5.9%
- Current value
- $5.85
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $94.15
- Multiplier
- 17.09x
- User PnL
- -$10.15
Yes position
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.4%
- Current value
- $2.65
- Potential payout
- $78.96
- Potential profit
- $76.32
- Multiplier
- 29.85x
- User PnL
- $1.65
Yes position
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Ends Jul 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 38.6%
- Current value
- $23.29
- Potential payout
- $60.42
- Potential profit
- $37.13
- Multiplier
- 2.59x
- User PnL
- $3.05
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $65.69
Yes position
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.52
Yes position
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $53.58
Yes position
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?
Ends Jun 25, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.52
No position
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $23.06
Yes position
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.19
Yes position
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $5.63
Yes position
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 9.5%
- Multiplier
- 10.53x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Yes position
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$10
Yes position
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$19.9
Yes position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20
Yes position
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$20.04
Yes position
US strike on Mexico by March 31?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$21.7
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$22
Yes position
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$27
Yes position
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$35
No position
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"?
Ends May 20, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$49.7
No position
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$64
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$118.38
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?
Ends Oct 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- -$179.17
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 53% 299.49 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 46% 2.17 shares
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Yes 99.9% 161.49 shares
- Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?Yes 81% 161.49 shares
- Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 33.5% 60.42 shares
- Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Yes 1.3% 78.96 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 52% 239.06 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?No 50% 236.76 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?No 43% 416.67 shares
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30?Yes 50.8% 118.97 shares
- Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes 73% 243.01 shares
- Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"?Yes 29% 68.62 shares