N
No position
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 2.1%
- Current value
- $5.48
- Potential payout
- $267.53
- Potential profit
- $262.05
- Multiplier
- 48.78x
- User PnL
- $0.48
Polymarket Trader
Wartlock
0xe85607bf3eddcc3f7cff16671695f5e96bba3789
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $391.73
- Realized PnL
- $403.31
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 24
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.5
- Potential payout
- $200.3
- Potential profit
- $199.8
- Multiplier
- 400.00x
- User PnL
- -$1.5
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.3%
- Current value
- $0.28
- Potential payout
- $93.33
- Potential profit
- $93.05
- Multiplier
- 333.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.72
Yes position
Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.8%
- Current value
- $0.54
- Potential payout
- $72.21
- Potential profit
- $71.67
- Multiplier
- 133.33x
- User PnL
- -$0.46
Yes position
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.04
- Potential payout
- $71.43
- Potential profit
- $71.39
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$0.96
Yes position
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 97.6%
- Current value
- $66.47
- Potential payout
- $68.14
- Potential profit
- $1.67
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $8.41
No position
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?
Ends Jun 30, 2027- Implied probability
- 78.5%
- Current value
- $53.15
- Potential payout
- $67.71
- Potential profit
- $14.56
- Multiplier
- 1.27x
- User PnL
- -$1.05
Yes position
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.1
- Potential payout
- $66.68
- Potential profit
- $66.58
- Multiplier
- 666.67x
- User PnL
- -$0.9
No position
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 87%
- Current value
- $54.36
- Potential payout
- $62.49
- Potential profit
- $8.12
- Multiplier
- 1.15x
- User PnL
- $2.66
Yes position
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.38
- Potential payout
- $58.82
- Potential profit
- $58.44
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.62
No position
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 63.5%
- Current value
- $34.02
- Potential payout
- $53.57
- Potential profit
- $19.55
- Multiplier
- 1.57x
- User PnL
- $4.02
No position
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Current value
- $45.6
- Potential payout
- $47.37
- Potential profit
- $1.78
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $11.6
Yes position
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0.1%
- Current value
- $0.02
- Potential payout
- $46.99
- Potential profit
- $46.97
- Multiplier
- 2000.00x
- User PnL
- -$5.33
Yes position
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Current value
- $5.47
- Potential payout
- $40.56
- Potential profit
- $35.08
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- -$4.53
No position
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.9%
- Current value
- $6.28
- Potential payout
- $35.08
- Potential profit
- $28.8
- Multiplier
- 5.59x
- User PnL
- -$11.72
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $28.93
- Potential payout
- $34.64
- Potential profit
- $5.72
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $7.93
No position
Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 3.1%
- Current value
- $1.05
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $33.43
- Multiplier
- 32.79x
- User PnL
- $0.05
Yes position
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.2%
- Current value
- $0.07
- Potential payout
- $34.48
- Potential profit
- $34.41
- Multiplier
- 500.00x
- User PnL
- -$19.93
Yes position
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Ends Nov 7, 2028- Implied probability
- 25.4%
- Current value
- $8.59
- Potential payout
- $33.89
- Potential profit
- $25.3
- Multiplier
- 3.94x
- User PnL
- $4.59
Yes position
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 83.5%
- Current value
- $27.91
- Potential payout
- $33.42
- Potential profit
- $5.51
- Multiplier
- 1.20x
- User PnL
- $2.91
No position
Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 94%
- Current value
- $29.47
- Potential payout
- $31.35
- Potential profit
- $1.88
- Multiplier
- 1.06x
- User PnL
- $2.38
Yes position
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?
Ends Dec 31, 2027- Implied probability
- 28.5%
- Current value
- $7.87
- Potential payout
- $27.63
- Potential profit
- $19.76
- Multiplier
- 3.51x
- User PnL
- -$5.63
Yes position
Will Angela Rayner be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.7%
- Current value
- $0.17
- Potential payout
- $26.32
- Potential profit
- $26.14
- Multiplier
- 153.85x
- User PnL
- -$0.83
No position
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 97.5%
- Current value
- $14.98
- Potential payout
- $15.37
- Potential profit
- $0.39
- Multiplier
- 1.03x
- User PnL
- $0.98
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Yes position
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June?
Ends May 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $34.38
No position
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $32.51
No position
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.84
Yes position
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $30.87
Yes position
Fact Check: Is Tyler Robinson queer?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $27.98
No position
Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $26.78
No position
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.93
Yes position
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $16.3
Yes position
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.14
Yes position
GPT-5.3 released by February 14, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15
Yes position
Will no listed leader be out in 2025?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $14.86
No position
Eric Swalwell charged by May 31?
Ends May 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $13.98
No position
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?
Ends Apr 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.01
No position
No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.78
Yes position
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service in 2025?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.24
No position
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Ends Mar 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.23
Yes position
Will Trump sue the BBC?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $11.1
No position
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 99.8%
- User PnL
- $11.05
No position
Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $10.27
Yes position
Trump's mail-in voting executive order blocked in April?
Ends Apr 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $10
Yes position
US military action against Iran before July?
Ends Jun 30, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.95
No position
Iran strike on US military by January 31?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.93
Yes position
Will None in 2025 occur?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.1
No position
Will Keir Starmer say "Liz" or "Truss" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?
Ends Dec 3, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $9.08
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?No 56% 53.57 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?No 80% 6.22 shares
- Nothing Ever Happens: JulySomething 22% 4.55 shares
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?No 63% 3.17 shares
- Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?No 99.4% 30.18 shares
- Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Yes 10.5% 9.52 shares
- McDonald's CEO out by June 30?No 99.6% 5.02 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?No 78% 12.82 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?No 2.9% 34.48 shares
- Will Starmer officially leave office by July 31?No 1.9% 267.53 shares
- Will the next UK election be called by June 30, 2027?No 80% 7.5 shares
- Will Ed Miliband be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?Yes 1.4% 72.21 shares