Polymarket Trader

Simon4s

0xe8a68017820cc850b4d13cfd8a165eb438b4644b

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $62.26K
Realized PnL: $32.82K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 18.3%
Current value: $10.68K
Potential payout: $58.5K
Potential profit: $47.82K
Multiplier: 5.48x
User PnL: -$18.57K

No position

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 81.8%
Current value: $47.82K
Potential payout: $58.5K
Potential profit: $10.68K
Multiplier: 1.22x
User PnL: $18.57K

No position

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.55
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $1.1K
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$61.25

No position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $839.09
Potential payout: $840.35
Potential profit: $1.26
User PnL: $66.53

Yes position

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $5.3
Potential payout: $814.71
Potential profit: $809.42
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$17.45

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $1.04
Potential payout: $696.66
Potential profit: $695.61
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$36.42

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?

Ends May 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.33
Potential payout: $651.8
Potential profit: $651.48
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$20.91

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $649.68
Potential payout: $650
Potential profit: $0.33
User PnL: $34.88

Yes position

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 4.9%
Current value: $30.88
Potential payout: $636.73
Potential profit: $605.85
Multiplier: 20.62x
User PnL: -$151.04

No position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $499.53
Potential payout: $500.28
Potential profit: $0.75
User PnL: $31.96

No position

Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $496.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $3.25
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.69
Potential payout: $462.64
Potential profit: $461.95
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$27.98

Yes position

Will Canada's drop in population in 2026 be the largest on record?

Ends Apr 30, 2027

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $347.81
Potential payout: $416.54
Potential profit: $68.73
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $156.06

Yes position

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

Ends Oct 10, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $30.08
Potential payout: $401
Potential profit: $370.93
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$54.15

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $282.1
Potential payout: $400.15
Potential profit: $118.04
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: $6.18

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $29.81
Potential payout: $400.15
Potential profit: $370.34
Multiplier: 13.42x
User PnL: -$5.1

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 7.4%
Current value: $29.6
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $370.4
Multiplier: 13.51x
User PnL: -$10.2

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 8.5%
Current value: $34
Potential payout: $400
Potential profit: $366
Multiplier: 11.76x
User PnL: -$48

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 46%
Current value: $183.99
Potential payout: $399.97
Potential profit: $215.98
Multiplier: 2.17x
User PnL: $18.89

No position

Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $398.76
Potential profit: $398.56
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$12.96

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $33.61
Potential payout: $353.83
Potential profit: $320.21
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$126

Yes position

Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.83
Potential payout: $332.47
Potential profit: $331.64
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$19.26

Yes position

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

Ends Jun 19, 2026

Implied probability: 1.8%
Current value: $4.9
Potential payout: $279.94
Potential profit: $275.04
Multiplier: 57.14x
User PnL: -$80.62

No position

Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 92%
Current value: $257.29
Potential payout: $279.66
Potential profit: $22.37
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $25.94

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Iran strike on US military by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $4.27K

Yes position

Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Ends Oct 26, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.32K

No position

Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $2.08K

No position

U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.97K

Yes position

Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 10?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.55K

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.53K

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 17?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.48K

No position

Will Seguro win all of Portugal's districts?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.43K

Yes position

No airdrop in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.33K

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 16?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.29K

No position

Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.23K

Yes position

Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be 4000000 or more?

Ends Oct 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

Yes position

Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be greater than $5.4B at market close on IPO day?

Ends Feb 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 23?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.04K

No position

Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.01K

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 27?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1K

No position

Prince Andrew released by February 19?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $968.22

No position

Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $950.82

No position

Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $939.64

Yes position

Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?

Ends Jan 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $934.3

Yes position

Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $867.1

Yes position

Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $799.88

Yes position

Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30?

Ends Nov 15, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $792.1

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 19?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $677.64

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

No 14% 36.39 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 32% 53.2 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 70% 207 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 73% 200 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Yes 69% 16.12 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Yes 55.1% 186.66 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

Yes 55.1% 200.01 shares
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?

No 63.4% 12.63 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

No 55% 350 shares
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Yes 58% 361.3 shares
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET

Down 43% 50 shares
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?

Yes 1.1% 200 shares