Polymarket Trader

WilliamCastro2242

@ActonAlthe62186

0xe8bbc538044fa0fdbc80ea17f2d8099358c5e885

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $152.37
Realized PnL: $1.34K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 14
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Loopscale launch a token by September 30, 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 12%
Current value: $34.2
Potential payout: $285
Potential profit: $250.8
Multiplier: 8.33x
User PnL: -$76.95

Yes position

Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $243
Potential profit: $243
User PnL: -$104.49

No position

Over $600M raised on Coinbase in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 57%
Current value: $107.71
Potential payout: $189
Potential profit: $81.29
Multiplier: 1.75x
User PnL: $54.79

Yes position

Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 5.3%
Current value: $5.25
Potential payout: $99
Potential profit: $93.75
Multiplier: 18.87x
User PnL: -$23.46

No position

Will there be at least 1800 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $55
Potential profit: $55
User PnL: -$1.49

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in January 2026?

Ends Feb 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $44
Potential profit: $44
User PnL: -$7.04

No position

Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?

Ends Dec 7, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $42
Potential profit: $42
User PnL: -$38.22

Yes position

Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $4.75
Potential payout: $38
Potential profit: $33.25
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$19.19

Yes position

Will Yngvill Kolset Haga & Avy Kaufman (Sentimental Value) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Jan 22, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.82
Potential profit: $6.82
User PnL: -$2.39

Yes position

Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $0.08
Potential payout: $3
Potential profit: $2.92
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: -$0.88

Yes position

Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?

Ends Sep 30, 2026

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $0.27
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.73
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$0.24

Yes position

Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

Ends Feb 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: -$0.15

No position

Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $0.9
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$0.39

Yes position

U.S. forces in Gaza in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1
Potential profit: $1
User PnL: -$0.03

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (December 30, 2025)

Ends Dec 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $159.79

No position

Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in December?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $125.78

Yes position

Will Pete Carroll be fired by February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112

Yes position

Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75%?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $110.9

Yes position

Ex-FaZe members form new organization by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $102.22

Yes position

Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 22%
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: $68.14

Yes position

Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $65.46

Yes position

Will Trae Young be traded this season?

Ends Feb 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $54.53

Yes position

Will ETHGAS launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $53.04

Yes position

Will the Portland Trail Blazers make the NBA Playoffs?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.83

Yes position

Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $46.13

Yes position

Will Battlefield 6 win Better With Friends at the 2025 Steam Awards?

Ends Jan 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $43.8

Yes position

Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 63.6%
Multiplier: 1.57x
User PnL: $43.75

Yes position

Will the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $41.72

Yes position

Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?

Ends Jan 21, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $39.92

Yes position

Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 14.5%
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: $37.62

Yes position

Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9%
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: $37.13

No position

Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.95

Yes position

Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $20.44

Yes position

Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.19

Yes position

Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $19.68

No position

Will "Zootopia 2" score at least 95 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?

Ends Dec 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.8

Yes position

US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.8

Yes position

Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?

Ends Mar 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $16

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Ostium FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Yes 15% 7 shares
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

No 55% 552 shares
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?

No 56% 552 shares
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

No 85% 364 shares
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?

No 72% 72 shares
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

No 86% 150 shares
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?

No 21% 63 shares
Will Kim Farington be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

No 87% 514 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?

No 35.1% 426 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?

No 35.2% 179 shares
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?

No 76% 72 shares
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?

No 38.1% 605 shares