Polymarket Trader

0xe8fc...91a6

0xe8fcbbadb3686e1ef6fe56145d948331d2a191a6

Public profile Partial data Delayed sectionDelayed section

Open value: $30.32
Realized PnL: -$2.26
Win rate: 62.5%
Open positions: 18
Closed positions: 8
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $3.89
Potential payout: $31.25
Potential profit: $27.36
Multiplier: 8.03x
User PnL: -$1.11

Yes position

Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.7%
Current value: $0.12
Potential payout: $17.86
Potential profit: $17.74
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$4.88

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $2.24
Potential payout: $10.83
Potential profit: $8.59
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: -$0.76

Yes position

Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $10.42
Potential profit: $10.42
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 83.5%
Current value: $7.32
Potential payout: $8.77
Potential profit: $1.45
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $2.32

No position

Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $7.46
Potential payout: $7.46
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.46

Yes position

Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 9, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.67
Potential profit: $6.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $5.78
Potential profit: $4.97
Multiplier: 7.17x
User PnL: -$0.19

Yes position

Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $5.77
Potential payout: $5.77
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.77

Yes position

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Ends Dec 6, 2026

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $0.15
Potential payout: $4.76
Potential profit: $4.61
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$0.85

Yes position

Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $4.55
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.7
Potential profit: $3.7
User PnL: -$3

No position

US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.33
Potential profit: $2.33
User PnL: -$1

No position

US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.08
Potential profit: $2.08
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?

Ends Mar 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.08
Potential profit: $2.08
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

Ends Nov 13, 2026

Implied probability: 84.5%
Current value: $1.32
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $0.24
Multiplier: 1.18x
User PnL: $0.32

No position

Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.56
Potential profit: $1.56
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $1.25
Potential payout: $1.25
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $0.25

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will "Sinners" win the award for Cinematic and Box Office Achievement at the 83rd Golden Globes?

Ends Jan 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.85

Yes position

Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Ends Feb 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.17

Yes position

Will Trump say "Tariff" during Board of Peace events on February 19?

Ends Feb 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.89

No position

Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?

Ends Jan 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.56

No position

Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.49

Yes position

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.94

Yes position

Will Darren Fletcher be appointed as manager of Manchester United?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$1.27

No position

Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award?

Yes 64% 1.56 shares
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

No 80% 1.25 shares
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?

No 48% 2.08 shares
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026?

Yes 0.7% 9.09 shares
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?

Yes 21% 4.76 shares
Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?

Yes 48% 2.08 shares
Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?

Yes 22% 4.55 shares
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?

Yes 81% 3.7 shares
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?

No 43% 2.33 shares
Will Trump say "Tariff" during Board of Peace events on February 19?

Yes 53% 1.89 shares
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Yes 72% 4.17 shares
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 17.3% 5.78 shares