Polymarket Trader

masha256

0xe915075515659c1802c698840917d7b88bbdf3bf

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $431.1
Realized PnL: $1.34K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 17
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.2
Potential payout: $133.33
Potential profit: $133.13
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$19.8

No position

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.5%
Current value: $110.02
Potential payout: $116.42
Potential profit: $6.4
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $10.02

No position

Discord IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 60.7%
Current value: $58.04
Potential payout: $95.7
Potential profit: $37.66
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $48.04

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Ends Jul 29, 2026

Implied probability: 9.6%
Current value: $8.14
Potential payout: $84.75
Potential profit: $76.61
Multiplier: 10.42x
User PnL: $3.14

Yes position

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $19.22
Potential payout: $81.8
Potential profit: $62.57
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: -$20.78

Los Angeles Dodgers position

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Ends Jul 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.43
User PnL: -$5

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $64.12
Potential profit: $64.12
User PnL: -$5

No position

Trump out as President before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 91.5%
Current value: $53.82
Potential payout: $58.82
Potential profit: $5
Multiplier: 1.09x
User PnL: $3.82

No position

Ledger IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 84%
Current value: $48.36
Potential payout: $57.57
Potential profit: $9.21
Multiplier: 1.19x
User PnL: $28.36

Yes position

Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?

Ends Jun 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$3

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96.5%
Current value: $42.3
Potential payout: $43.86
Potential profit: $1.56
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $2.3

No position

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 55.5%
Current value: $23.12
Potential payout: $41.67
Potential profit: $18.54
Multiplier: 1.80x
User PnL: $3.12

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 20.7%
Current value: $8.15
Potential payout: $39.47
Potential profit: $31.32
Multiplier: 4.84x
User PnL: -$6.85

Yes position

Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $2.41
Potential payout: $37.04
Potential profit: $34.63
Multiplier: 15.38x
User PnL: -$7.59

No position

Stripe IPO before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 89.5%
Current value: $30.23
Potential payout: $33.78
Potential profit: $3.55
Multiplier: 1.12x
User PnL: $0.23

Yes position

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 56%
Current value: $15.56
Potential payout: $27.78
Potential profit: $12.22
Multiplier: 1.79x
User PnL: -$4.44

No position

Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 68%
Current value: $11.53
Potential payout: $16.95
Potential profit: $5.42
Multiplier: 1.47x
User PnL: $1.53

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 25?

Ends Feb 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $222.04

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $155.24

Yes position

Will Biden drop out on July 21?

Ends Jul 20, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $115.74

Yes position

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $107.37

Yes position

Will Ethereum reach $3700 in July?

Ends Aug 1, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $105

Yes position

Will there be between 16 and 20 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?

Ends Dec 1, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.68

Yes position

Will Trump post on X again before election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $51.83

Yes position

Biden drops out by July 4?

Ends Jul 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.97

No position

Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $48.89

No position

Will Biden say "Hunter" during farewell address?

Ends Jan 15, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.5

Yes position

Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.82

Yes position

Will Powell say "Probability" during September press conference?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.56

Yes position

Will Trump say "MAGA" 3 or more times at debate?

Ends Sep 10, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $34

Yes position

Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.71

No position

Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024?

Ends Dec 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.2

No position

Will Trump + Biden 2nd debate happen as scheduled?

Ends Sep 10, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.34

Yes position

Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 3+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22

Yes position

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.65

Yes position

Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.71

Republican position

Which party wins 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 8, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.56

No position

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

Ends Dec 10, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.51

Yes position

Biden drops out of presidential race?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.46

Yes position

Will Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during September press conference?

Ends Sep 17, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $19.41

No position

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.77

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 6% 50 shares
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres

Los Angeles Dodgers 7% 71.43 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?

Yes 27% 37.04 shares
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by June 30?

Yes 7.8% 64.12 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?

Yes 85% 23.53 shares
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Yes 15% 133.33 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?

Yes 70% 28.57 shares
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?

No 89.9% 33.37 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?

Yes 62% 32.26 shares
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?

Yes 64% 31.25 shares
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?

Yes 61% 16.39 shares
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?

No 59% 16.95 shares