Polymarket Trader

ARVacationFunds

0xe919d0edcc50e36437930faa8e86d9120942da2d

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $4.17K
Realized PnL: $0
Win rate: Unavailable
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 0
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.03K
Potential profit: $3.03K
User PnL: -$515.36

Yes position

Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $2.7K
Potential payout: $2.7K
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $2.43K

Yes position

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 23.3%
Current value: $261.91
Potential payout: $1.13K
Potential profit: $864.59
Multiplier: 4.30x
User PnL: -$42.24

No position

Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $900
Potential profit: $900
User PnL: -$162

Yes position

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $45.22
Potential payout: $845.3
Potential profit: $800.08
Multiplier: 18.69x
User PnL: -$2.11

No position

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 50.5%
Current value: $389.41
Potential payout: $771.1
Potential profit: $381.69
Multiplier: 1.98x
User PnL: -$11.57

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 22.3%
Current value: $141.02
Potential payout: $633.79
Potential profit: $492.77
Multiplier: 4.49x
User PnL: $52.29

Yes position

Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

Ends May 26, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $404.7
Potential profit: $404.7
User PnL: -$60.71

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $10.12
Potential payout: $306.62
Potential profit: $296.5
Multiplier: 30.30x
User PnL: -$20.54

No position

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

Ends May 27, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $294.39
Potential profit: $294.39
User PnL: -$111.87

Yes position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $278.39
Potential payout: $278.39
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $169.82

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 2%
Current value: $4.94
Potential payout: $246.88
Potential profit: $241.94
Multiplier: 50.00x
User PnL: -$7.41

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 3.1%
Current value: $6.63
Potential payout: $213.89
Potential profit: $207.26
Multiplier: 32.26x
User PnL: -$27.59

No position

Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $205.9
Potential profit: $205.9
User PnL: -$90.6

No position

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
Current value: $187.3
Potential payout: $187.3
Potential profit: $0
User PnL: $63.68

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $2.34
Potential payout: $156.12
Potential profit: $153.78
Multiplier: 66.67x
User PnL: -$14.83

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $114.68
Potential payout: $140.73
Potential profit: $26.05
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $61.2

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 14.6%
Current value: $16.86
Potential payout: $115.9
Potential profit: $99.04
Multiplier: 6.87x
User PnL: $7.89

Yes position

Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 5.6%
Current value: $5.48
Potential payout: $98.76
Potential profit: $93.27
Multiplier: 18.02x
User PnL: -$13.28

Yes position

Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $96.1
Potential profit: $96.1
User PnL: -$8.26

Yes position

Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?

Ends Jun 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $87.2
Potential profit: $87.2
User PnL: -$4.36

Yes position

Will Trump deport less than 250,000?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $48.1
Potential profit: $48.1
User PnL: -$2.89

Yes position

Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $34.13
Potential profit: $34.13
User PnL: -$3.75

Yes position

Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 11.8%
Current value: $3.51
Potential payout: $29.83
Potential profit: $26.33
Multiplier: 8.51x
User PnL: -$0.07

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No closed positions returned for this trader.

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?

No 6% 18.39 shares
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

Yes 10% 7.2 shares
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 12% 11.7 shares
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Yes 8.6% 96.1 shares
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?

Yes 49% 6.7 shares
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Yes 7.7% 115.9 shares
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?

No 44% 205.9 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?

Yes 39% 278.39 shares
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

No 38% 294.39 shares
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 5.6% 845.3 shares
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

No 66% 187.3 shares
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

Yes 11% 10 shares