No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 90.5%
- Current value
- $246.99
- Potential payout
- $272.92
- Potential profit
- $25.93
- Multiplier
- 1.10x
- User PnL
- $48.63
Polymarket Trader
arcadess
@arcadessss
0xe92d131b08224b97e55ebecc3d5f37fc0376bffc
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $297.85
- Realized PnL
- $7.8K
- Win rate
- 100%
- Open positions
- 4
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
No position
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 32.5%
- Current value
- $50.86
- Potential payout
- $156.49
- Potential profit
- $105.63
- Multiplier
- 3.08x
- User PnL
- -$2.94
Yes position
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?
Ends Jun 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $88.89
- Potential profit
- $88.89
- User PnL
- -$16
No position
Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)
Ends May 3, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $31.65
- Potential profit
- $31.65
- User PnL
- -$14.68
Resolved Context
Closed positions
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET
Ends Dec 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.87K
Up position
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $595.75
Down position
Ethereum Up or Down - December 24, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET
Ends Dec 25, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $357.71
Down position
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.67
Kings position
Spread: Rockets (-14.5)
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $314.53
Invictus Gaming position
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $280.34
No position
Will Kevin Warsh be formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by February 28, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $259.84
No position
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
Ends Jan 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $256.09
Under position
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles: O/U 157.5
Ends Jan 10, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255.56
Celtics position
Pacers vs. Celtics
Ends Dec 23, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $255
No position
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 16, 2026?
Ends Feb 28, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $253.27
No position
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026?
Ends Jan 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $248.03
Yes position
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31?
Ends Dec 31, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.33
Fresno State Bulldogs position
Colorado State Rams vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Ends Jan 13, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $246.11
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $223.2
Down position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Ends Feb 16, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $218.42
Up position
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $215.3
Up position
XRP Up or Down - December 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $212.99
Yes position
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 8?
Ends Feb 8, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $208.78
Yes position
Will Iran strike Israel on March 5?
Ends Jan 1, 1970- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $205.54
Down position
Solana Up or Down - December 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET
Ends Dec 24, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $203.57
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET
Ends Feb 14, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $197.16
Up position
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET
Ends Dec 22, 2025- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $188.79
Over position
Heat vs. Thunder: O/U 233.5
Ends Jan 12, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $179.41
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?No 34.4% 156.49 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 90% 40.77 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 73% 78.08 shares
- Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?No 72.6% 235.61 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 38.7% 320.83 shares
- Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under 76% 81.58 shares
- Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to ScoreNo 63% 57.14 shares
- US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Yes 85.1% 82.26 shares
- US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?No 24% 320.83 shares
- ChatGPT Outage by May 1?No 48.8% 91.04 shares
- Will Trump say "Jerome Too Late" this week? (April 27 - May 3)No 46.4% 31.65 shares
- Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event?No 38% 46.16 shares