Polymarket Trader

RepublicOfChina

0xe947b0748c6f37c656c7674636f93b4c527c7a45

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $3.29K
Realized PnL: $19.14K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.31K
Potential profit: $7.31K
User PnL: -$5.15K

No position

Will LDP win a majority in the 2026 Japanese snap election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.56K
Potential profit: $3.56K
User PnL: -$1.4K

Yes position

Will Yoshihiko Noda be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.42K
Potential profit: $3.42K
User PnL: -$13.74

No position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.97K
Potential profit: $2.97K
User PnL: -$36.49

Yes position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out in 2025?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2.2K
Potential profit: $2.2K
User PnL: -$25.83

No position

2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 81.5%
Current value: $1.47K
Potential payout: $1.8K
Potential profit: $333.62
Multiplier: 1.23x
User PnL: $273.55

No position

South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.6K
Potential profit: $1.6K
User PnL: -$206.12

No position

SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 83%
Current value: $1.31K
Potential payout: $1.58K
Potential profit: $268.57
Multiplier: 1.20x
User PnL: $202.68

Yes position

Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.38K
Potential profit: $1.38K
User PnL: -$77.69

No position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.29K
Potential profit: $1.29K
User PnL: -$11.8

Yes position

Jang Dong-hyeok out as PPP Leader by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 5.4%
Current value: $67.6
Potential payout: $1.25K
Potential profit: $1.18K
Multiplier: 18.52x
User PnL: -$785.35

Ukraine position

Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.19K
User PnL: -$204.66

No position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by December 31?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.19K
Potential profit: $1.19K
User PnL: -$429.45

No position

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.16K
Potential profit: $1.16K
User PnL: -$129.16

Yes position

Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $9.73
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.14K
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: -$9.73

No position

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.15K
Potential profit: $1.15K
User PnL: -$3.44

Yes position

Will Sanae Takaichi be the next leader out before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.05K
Potential profit: $1.05K
User PnL: -$44.62

No position

Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $791.09
Potential profit: $791.09
User PnL: -$8.32

No position

Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $745.88
Potential profit: $745.88
User PnL: -$231.61

Yes position

Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan?

Ends Oct 4, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $727.03
Potential profit: $727.03
User PnL: -$75.5

Yes position

Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?

Ends Oct 5, 2026

Implied probability: 63%
Current value: $435.27
Potential payout: $690.9
Potential profit: $255.63
Multiplier: 1.59x
User PnL: $47.17

No position

Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by December 31?

Ends Oct 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $677.7
Potential profit: $677.7
User PnL: -$328.03

No position

Will the Conservative Party of Japan loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $540.43
Potential profit: $540.43
User PnL: -$72.72

Yes position

Will the Japan Innovation Party loose any seats in Japanese snap election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $473.61
Potential profit: $473.61
User PnL: -$329.91

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $3.09K

Yes position

Will the candidate from the Democratic Party (DPK) win the South Korean Presidential Election?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.96K

No position

Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?

Ends Aug 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.6K

Yes position

South Korean President impeached in 2024?

Ends Dec 31, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.48K

Yes position

Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election

Ends Jun 3, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.22K

No position

Will Russia capture Kurakhove before December?

Ends Nov 30, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $697.58

No position

Yoon out of custody by March 31?

Ends Mar 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $662.91

No position

Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $625.36

Yes position

Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $434.76

No position

Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election?

Ends Dec 17, 2024

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $401.85

No position

Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $387.28

No position

Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $384.57

Yes position

Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $360.04

No position

Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $334.53

Yes position

Democratic sweep?

Ends Nov 4, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $329.16

Yes position

Will Union win the most seats in the next German election?

Ends Feb 23, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $313.78

Yes position

Will Yoon Suk Yeol be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $282.83

No position

Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $270.82

No position

Will Russia capture Yunakivka before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $248.57

No position

Yoon reinstated as President before July?

Ends Jun 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $241.08

No position

Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?

Ends Sep 30, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $216.56

No position

Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $206.61

No position

Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea?

Ends Jun 3, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $204.57

Yes position

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.84

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

No 74% 25 shares
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?

No 73% 72.52 shares
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?

Yes 40% 172.88 shares
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?

No 31% 69.32 shares
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027?

Yes 51% 38 shares
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?

Yes 82% 299.99 shares
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?

Yes 81% 124.99 shares
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by December 31, 2026?

Yes 80% 30.6 shares
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?

Yes 37% 24.59 shares
Jung Chung-rae out as DP leader by June 30, 2026?

Yes 38% 154.98 shares
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?

Yes 63% 5 shares
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 70% 11.45 shares