Polymarket Trader

ARM

0xea304cf1cccbf3e58fdcb948f76752f9cac90833

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $77.62
Realized PnL: -$657.05
Win rate: 53.8%
Open positions: 8
Closed positions: 13
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 3.3%
Current value: $20.34
Potential payout: $625.75
Potential profit: $605.41
Multiplier: 30.77x
User PnL: -$4.66

Yes position

Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $156.25
Potential profit: $156.25
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Ends Jul 20, 2026

Implied probability: 39%
Current value: $57.28
Potential payout: $147.06
Potential profit: $89.78
Multiplier: 2.57x
User PnL: $7.28

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $132.16
Potential profit: $132.16
User PnL: -$75

Yes position

Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Ends Jul 11, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $109.89
Potential profit: $109.89
User PnL: -$25

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $100
Potential profit: $100
User PnL: -$73

Spurs position

Knicks vs. Spurs

Ends Jun 14, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.13
Potential profit: $78.13
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $54.95
Potential profit: $54.95
User PnL: -$50

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Thunder position

Thunder vs. Pacers

Ends Jun 21, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $122.86

Spurs position

Spurs vs. Knicks

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $112.77

Nuggets position

Nuggets vs. Hawks

Ends Dec 6, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35

Yes position

Will France win on 2026-07-09?

Ends Jul 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.65

Yes position

Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.42

Yes position

Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

Ends Jul 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.84

No position

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.17

Warriors position

Warriors vs. Cavaliers

Ends Nov 9, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$49.76

Bucks position

Bucks vs. Cavaliers

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$50

Yes position

Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?

Ends Nov 5, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$100

Yes position

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 35-64

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

2024 presidential election: Democrats win by 15-34

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$150

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 4, 2024

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$500

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?

Yes 4% 625.75 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?

Yes 56.7% 132.16 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?

Yes 59.7% 41.84 shares
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?

Yes 22.7% 109.89 shares
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Yes 34% 147.06 shares
Will France win on 2026-07-09?

Yes 62% 80.65 shares
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?

Yes 32% 156.25 shares
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?

Yes 71% 70.42 shares
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?

Yes 91% 54.95 shares
Knicks vs. Spurs

Spurs 64% 78.13 shares
Spurs vs. Knicks

Spurs 47% 212.77 shares
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?

No 96% 104.17 shares