AmanoHina

Implied probability: 6.5%
Current value: $12.05
Potential payout: $186.86
Potential profit: $174.81
Multiplier: 15.50x
User PnL: -$1.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.07
Potential payout: $136.08
Potential profit: $136.01
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.46

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C or higher on June 18?

Implied probability: 7.7%
Current value: $5.19
Potential payout: $67.9
Potential profit: $62.71
Multiplier: 13.07x
User PnL: $3.97

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 11.5%
Current value: $6.79
Potential payout: $59.08
Potential profit: $52.28
Multiplier: 8.70x
User PnL: -$1.48

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 24.2%
Current value: $12.11
Potential payout: $50.03
Potential profit: $37.92
Multiplier: 4.13x
User PnL: $10.06

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 23.5%
Current value: $11.62
Potential payout: $49.45
Potential profit: $37.83
Multiplier: 4.26x
User PnL: $4.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 1.1%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $40.58
Potential profit: $40.13
Multiplier: 90.91x
User PnL: -$10.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 20.5%
Current value: $7.7
Potential payout: $37.57
Potential profit: $29.87
Multiplier: 4.88x
User PnL: -$2.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $36.26
Potential profit: $36.24
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.78

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.5%
Current value: $35.45
Potential payout: $35.63
Potential profit: $0.18
User PnL: $31.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 10.5%
Current value: $3.66
Potential payout: $34.84
Potential profit: $31.18
Multiplier: 9.52x
User PnL: -$1.22

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $31.4
Potential profit: $31.35
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$10.63

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $6.78
Potential payout: $30.83
Potential profit: $24.05
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$3.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $12.23
Potential payout: $29.46
Potential profit: $17.23
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$0.15

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 37.5%
Current value: $10.77
Potential payout: $28.73
Potential profit: $17.96
Multiplier: 2.67x
User PnL: $1.87

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 34.5%
Current value: $9.44
Potential payout: $27.38
Potential profit: $17.94
Multiplier: 2.90x
User PnL: -$0.69

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 27%
Current value: $7.25
Potential payout: $26.86
Potential profit: $19.61
Multiplier: 3.70x
User PnL: -$3.76

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $26.02
Potential profit: $26.01
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.37

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 38.5%
Current value: $9.92
Potential payout: $25.77
Potential profit: $15.85
Multiplier: 2.60x
User PnL: $0.64

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $24.94
Potential payout: $24.99
Potential profit: $0.05
User PnL: $18.44

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $22.39
Potential profit: $22.38
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.84

No position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 57.5%
Current value: $11.28
Potential payout: $19.61
Potential profit: $8.33
Multiplier: 1.74x
User PnL: -$0.88

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 59.5%
Current value: $11.63
Potential payout: $19.54
Potential profit: $7.91
Multiplier: 1.68x
User PnL: -$0.49

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $12.47
Potential payout: $19.34
Potential profit: $6.87
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $0.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 22.5%
Current value: $4.3
Potential payout: $19.12
Potential profit: $14.82
Multiplier: 4.44x
User PnL: -$0.29

No position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 72%
Current value: $13.13
Potential payout: $18.23
Potential profit: $5.1
Multiplier: 1.39x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 28%
Current value: $5.01
Potential payout: $17.91
Potential profit: $12.9
Multiplier: 3.57x
User PnL: $2.33

No position

Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 60%
Current value: $10.56
Potential payout: $17.6
Potential profit: $7.04
Multiplier: 1.67x
User PnL: -$1.06

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $16.85
Potential profit: $16.81
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$4.51

No position

Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 19?

Implied probability: 74.5%
Current value: $12.53
Potential payout: $16.82
Potential profit: $4.29
Multiplier: 1.34x
User PnL: $0.42

No position

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 41.5%
Current value: $6.86
Potential payout: $16.53
Potential profit: $9.67
Multiplier: 2.41x
User PnL: -$4.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 15.5%
Current value: $2.55
Potential payout: $16.46
Potential profit: $13.91
Multiplier: 6.45x
User PnL: -$7.16

No position

Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 68.5%
Current value: $10.95
Potential payout: $15.99
Potential profit: $5.04
Multiplier: 1.46x
User PnL: -$0.56

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 62%
Current value: $9.87
Potential payout: $15.92
Potential profit: $6.05
Multiplier: 1.61x
User PnL: -$0.64

No position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 69.5%
Current value: $11.02
Potential payout: $15.86
Potential profit: $4.84
Multiplier: 1.44x
User PnL: -$0.56

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.2%
Current value: $15.07
Potential payout: $15.19
Potential profit: $0.12
User PnL: $2.16

No position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 69%
Current value: $10.4
Potential payout: $15.08
Potential profit: $4.68
Multiplier: 1.45x
User PnL: -$0.45

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 76.5%
Current value: $11.48
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $3.53
Multiplier: 1.31x
User PnL: $1.42

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 64.5%
Current value: $9.68
Potential payout: $15
Potential profit: $5.32
Multiplier: 1.55x
User PnL: $0.08

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 19?

Implied probability: 25%
Current value: $3.74
Potential payout: $14.99
Potential profit: $11.25
Multiplier: 4.01x
User PnL: $0.55

No position

Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 87%
Current value: $12.95
Potential payout: $14.88
Potential profit: $1.93
Multiplier: 1.15x
User PnL: $1.79

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $14.82
Potential profit: $14.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.18

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 99.9%
Current value: $14.69
Potential payout: $14.7
Potential profit: $0.01
User PnL: $9.98

No position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 76.7%
Current value: $11.13
Potential payout: $14.52
Potential profit: $3.39
Multiplier: 1.30x
User PnL: -$0.14

No position

Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 54%
Current value: $7.82
Potential payout: $14.49
Potential profit: $6.67
Multiplier: 1.85x
User PnL: -$1.45

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 90.5%
Current value: $12.93
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $1.36
Multiplier: 1.10x
User PnL: $3.64

No position

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 88.5%
Current value: $12.55
Potential payout: $14.18
Potential profit: $1.63
Multiplier: 1.13x
User PnL: $1.35

No position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $9.26
Potential payout: $14.13
Potential profit: $4.87
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $0.35

No position

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $9.89
Potential payout: $14.03
Potential profit: $4.14
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$1.05

No position

Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on June 18?

Implied probability: 70.5%
Current value: $9.87
Potential payout: $14
Potential profit: $4.13
Multiplier: 1.42x
User PnL: -$0.35

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $260

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $137.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11?

Ends Jun 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $126.28

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C or higher on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $92.75

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on May 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $85.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C or higher on May 11?

Ends May 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $72.73

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 5?

Ends Jun 5, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $66.32

No position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $63.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $62.34

No position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8?

Ends Mar 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.8

No position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $57.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $45.9

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $42.32

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on February 27?

Ends Feb 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $40.53

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $38.14

No position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on April 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $37.93

No position

Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $35.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.9

No position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on April 21?

Ends Apr 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.87

No position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.79

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 36°C or higher on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 28?

Ends May 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $32.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.38

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.74

No position

Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on April 20?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $29.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $27.88

No position

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 23?

Ends Mar 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $25.3

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 10?

Ends Jun 10, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.81

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 19?

Ends May 19, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.35

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C on May 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.27

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $24.03

No position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on February 28?

Ends Feb 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.93

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 22?

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $23.79

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12?

Ends Jun 12, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.45

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $22.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 2?

Ends Jun 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.9

No position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 42-43°F on February 23?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 4?

Ends Jun 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9?

Ends Jun 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.23

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15?

Ends Jun 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.18

No position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on March 9?

Ends Mar 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $20.13

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on May 1?

Ends May 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.67

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 23?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $18.41

No position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.99

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 16?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.89

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8?

Ends Jun 8, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $17.82

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 14?