Polymarket Trader

davpol

0xeae1c93c8ba5ded36a6be65043c3d62b3ed665ec

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $1.81K
Realized PnL: $6.9K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 24
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

No position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 99.8%
Current value: $1.1K
Potential payout: $1.1K
Potential profit: $2.75
User PnL: $64.82

Yes position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $2.19
Potential payout: $876.47
Potential profit: $874.28
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$414.91

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.28
Potential payout: $550
Potential profit: $549.73
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.83

Yes position

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.73
Potential payout: $290.86
Potential profit: $290.13
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$6.81

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $226.62
Potential payout: $274.69
Potential profit: $48.07
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $4.11

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.91
Potential payout: $260.95
Potential profit: $260.03
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$26.22

Yes position

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Ends Oct 4, 2026

Implied probability: 56.5%
Current value: $143.78
Potential payout: $254.52
Potential profit: $110.74
Multiplier: 1.77x
User PnL: -$3.84

Yes position

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.6
Potential payout: $238.23
Potential profit: $237.64
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$30.37

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 3.7%
Current value: $7.44
Potential payout: $203.87
Potential profit: $196.43
Multiplier: 27.40x
User PnL: -$2.01

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.6%
Current value: $0.81
Potential payout: $147.09
Potential profit: $146.28
Multiplier: 181.82x
User PnL: -$11.15

Yes position

Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

Ends Jun 7, 2026

Implied probability: 99.4%
Current value: $103
Potential payout: $103.62
Potential profit: $0.62
User PnL: $0.48

Yes position

Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 6.4%
Current value: $6.41
Potential payout: $100.89
Potential profit: $94.48
Multiplier: 15.75x
User PnL: -$0.68

No position

Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 82.5%
Current value: $77.36
Potential payout: $93.77
Potential profit: $16.41
Multiplier: 1.21x
User PnL: $1.29

No position

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Ends Jul 31, 2026

Implied probability: 95.5%
Current value: $80.53
Potential payout: $84.32
Potential profit: $3.79
Multiplier: 1.05x
User PnL: $8.84

Yes position

Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 13.8%
Current value: $10.75
Potential payout: $78.2
Potential profit: $67.45
Multiplier: 7.27x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $77.86
Potential profit: $77.66
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.9

Yes position

Will the Democratic Party win the LA-06 House seat?

Ends Nov 3, 2026

Implied probability: 7.5%
Current value: $5.77
Potential payout: $76.95
Potential profit: $71.18
Multiplier: 13.33x
User PnL: -$21.8

Yes position

Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.5%
Current value: $0.95
Potential payout: $65.63
Potential profit: $64.67
Multiplier: 68.97x
User PnL: -$0.1

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 14.5%
Current value: $8.67
Potential payout: $59.76
Potential profit: $51.1
Multiplier: 6.90x
User PnL: -$5.34

Yes position

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 9.5%
Current value: $5.6
Potential payout: $58.96
Potential profit: $53.36
Multiplier: 10.53x
User PnL: -$0.29

Yes position

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30?

Ends Jul 1, 2026

Implied probability: 0.4%
Current value: $0.19
Potential payout: $55.48
Potential profit: $55.28
Multiplier: 285.71x
User PnL: -$4.18

No position

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 60.7%
Current value: $33.12
Potential payout: $54.61
Potential profit: $21.49
Multiplier: 1.65x
User PnL: $0.12

Yes position

Israel closes its airspace by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.5%
Current value: $0.24
Potential payout: $52.75
Potential profit: $52.51
Multiplier: 222.22x
User PnL: -$1.9

Yes position

Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $40.74
Potential profit: $40.72
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$1.08

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?

Ends Apr 14, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.42K

Yes position

Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $718.63

Yes position

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $515.42

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026?

Ends Apr 15, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $442.53

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $439.17

Yes position

Tulsi Gabbard out by June 30?

Ends Jun 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $414.35

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $396

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $344.14

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $278.71

No position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $229.13

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $193.54

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 30 to April 1, 2026?

Ends Apr 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $188.35

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $173.73

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?

Ends Apr 25, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $164.35

No position

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?

Ends Jun 1, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $146.96

Yes position

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 48.8%
Multiplier: 2.05x
User PnL: $108.27

No position

Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?

Ends Apr 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $102.38

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?

Ends Apr 17, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $97.32

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?

Ends Apr 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $95.24

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.63

Yes position

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?

Ends Apr 7, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $93.33

No position

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $82.86

No position

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $78.92

No position

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $77.92

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

No 60.1% 2.93 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

No 60.1% 2.18 shares
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

No 61.9% 2.12 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 52.6% 2.07 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 52.8% 1.99 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 61.1% 1.78 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 61.3% 1.96 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 61.3% 1.78 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

No 61.5% 1.77 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Yes 38.5% 220.92 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?

Yes 36.3% 11.51 shares
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

Yes 52% 2.1 shares