No position
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 17.5%
- Current value
- $61.24
- Potential payout
- $349.95
- Potential profit
- $288.71
- Multiplier
- 5.71x
- User PnL
- $2.75
Polymarket Trader
Arrth
0xeafc121933b120f5401668b06a4072e1f788a390
Public profile Partial data Delayed section
- Open value
- $648.45
- Realized PnL
- $428.02
- Win rate
- 95.8%
- Open positions
- 9
- Closed positions
- 24
- Markets traded
- Unavailable
Current Predictions
Open positions
Yes position
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 87.5%
- Current value
- $280
- Potential payout
- $320
- Potential profit
- $40
- Multiplier
- 1.14x
- User PnL
- $5.8
No position
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
Ends Dec 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 82.5%
- Current value
- $247.5
- Potential payout
- $300
- Potential profit
- $52.5
- Multiplier
- 1.21x
- User PnL
- $12
Yes position
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?
Ends Jun 21, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $265
- Potential profit
- $265
- User PnL
- -$168.85
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 12.5%
- Current value
- $12.5
- Potential payout
- $100
- Potential profit
- $87.5
- Multiplier
- 8.00x
- User PnL
- $2.5
Yes position
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 76%
- Current value
- $42.56
- Potential payout
- $56
- Potential profit
- $13.44
- Multiplier
- 1.32x
- User PnL
- $0.24
Y
Yes position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $42
- Potential profit
- $42
- User PnL
- -$13.42
No position
Base FDV above $1B one day after launch?
Ends Jan 1, 2028- Implied probability
- 24%
- Current value
- $4.65
- Potential payout
- $19.37
- Potential profit
- $14.72
- Multiplier
- 4.17x
- User PnL
- $1.16
Yes position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- Current value
- $0
- Potential payout
- $1
- Potential profit
- $1
- User PnL
- -$0.67
Resolved Context
Closed positions
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $73.37
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
Ends Jun 30, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.6%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $73.08
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $58.29
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?
Ends Aug 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $31.15
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 46%
- Multiplier
- 2.17x
- User PnL
- $25.94
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $24.84
Yes position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 13.5%
- Multiplier
- 7.41x
- User PnL
- $24.49
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 30.5%
- Multiplier
- 3.28x
- User PnL
- $16.9
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 69.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.44x
- User PnL
- $16.35
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17?
Ends Jun 17, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $15.17
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $12.31
Yes position
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 96.3%
- Multiplier
- 1.04x
- User PnL
- $10.46
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?
Ends Jul 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $7.35
No position
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?
Ends Jul 31, 2026- Implied probability
- 86.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.16x
- User PnL
- $6.81
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?
Ends Jun 22, 2026- Implied probability
- 85.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.17x
- User PnL
- $6.42
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 0.6%
- Multiplier
- 166.67x
- User PnL
- $6.11
Yes position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 53.5%
- Multiplier
- 1.87x
- User PnL
- $4.8
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?
Ends Jun 26, 2026- Implied probability
- 54%
- Multiplier
- 1.85x
- User PnL
- $4.23
No position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $4.15
N
No position
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16?
Ends Jun 18, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $2.8
No position
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?
Ends Jan 1, 2027- Implied probability
- 61%
- Multiplier
- 1.64x
- User PnL
- $1.8
No position
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?
Ends May 15, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $1.07
Yes position
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19?
Ends Jun 19, 2026- Implied probability
- 0%
- User PnL
- $0.15
Y
Yes position
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?
Ends Sep 1, 2026- Implied probability
- 100%
- User PnL
- $0
Trades
Recent trades
Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.
- Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?Yes 64% 250 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No 17% 49.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No 17% 99.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 86% 100 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 86% 20 shares
- Starmer out by June 26, 2026?No 17% 99.99 shares
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Yes 86% 100 shares
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No 79% 150 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 29% 91 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?No 95% 152 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Yes 54.6% 45 shares
- Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Yes 63% 80 shares