Polymarket Trader

elendersystemling

0xeb110bc054def811071c2e7ddee284940a655804

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $279.97
Realized PnL: $14.44
Win rate: 33.3%
Open positions: 19
Closed positions: 3
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $88.33
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $245
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: -$11.67

Yes position

Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $278.77
Potential profit: $278.77
User PnL: -$15

Yes position

Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $256.91
Potential profit: $256.91
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 16.5%
Current value: $40.03
Potential payout: $242.59
Potential profit: $202.57
Multiplier: 6.06x
User PnL: -$9.97

Yes position

Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $142.86
Potential profit: $142.86
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$20

Yes position

Natural Disaster in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 26.5%
Current value: $21.31
Potential payout: $80.4
Potential profit: $59.09
Multiplier: 3.77x
User PnL: $1.31

No position

Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $78.95
Potential profit: $78.95
User PnL: -$15

No position

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 96%
Current value: $61.84
Potential payout: $64.45
Potential profit: $2.61
Multiplier: 1.04x
User PnL: $1.84

Yes position

Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 94.6%
Current value: $60.35
Potential payout: $63.83
Potential profit: $3.48
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.35

Yes position

Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $50
Potential profit: $50
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $33.33
Potential profit: $33.33
User PnL: -$10

No position

Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $26.79
Potential profit: $26.79
User PnL: -$15

No position

Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $25
Potential profit: $25
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $21.28
Potential profit: $21.28
User PnL: -$10

Yes position

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Ends Sep 6, 2026

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $8.11
Potential payout: $18.87
Potential profit: $10.75
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$1.89

Yes position

Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $16.22
Potential profit: $16.22
User PnL: -$6

No position

Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $6.35
Potential profit: $6.35
User PnL: -$4

No position

Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $4.55
Potential profit: $4.55
User PnL: -$2

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Yes position

Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$5.77

Yes position

Will Estonia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Ends May 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$9.8

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Yes 53% 18.87 shares
Natural Disaster in 2026?

Yes 24.9% 80.4 shares
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 37% 16.22 shares
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

No 44% 4.55 shares
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026?

Yes 13.9% 66.41 shares
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

No 63% 6.35 shares
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

No 30% 33.33 shares
Will Estonia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 0.1% 203.91 shares
Will Moldova be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

No 40% 25 shares
Will Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?

No 25% 40 shares
Will Luxembourg be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 7% 142.86 shares
Will Estonia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

Yes 4.9% 203.92 shares