Niromero

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.75
Potential payout: $500
Potential profit: $499.25
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.25

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.23
Potential payout: $458.25
Potential profit: $458.02
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$9.57

Yes position

Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Implied probability: 1.2%
Current value: $3.83
Potential payout: $333.33
Potential profit: $329.5
Multiplier: 86.96x
User PnL: $2.83

Yes position

Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.79
Potential payout: $317.3
Potential profit: $316.51
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

Implied probability: 6.2%
Current value: $13.42
Potential payout: $218.18
Potential profit: $204.76
Multiplier: 16.26x
User PnL: -$8.58

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$42 in June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $194.79
Potential profit: $194.69
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.9

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $166.67
User PnL: -$2

Yes position

Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Current value: $1.42
Potential payout: $166.67
Potential profit: $165.25
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $0.42

Yes position

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $125
Potential profit: $125
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?

Ends Jun 17, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $90.91
Potential profit: $90.91
User PnL: -$1

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.13
Potential payout: $86.96
Potential profit: $86.83
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$1.87

Yes position

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.04
Potential payout: $81.85
Potential profit: $81.81
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.96

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.11
Potential payout: $71.43
Potential profit: $71.32
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.89

Yes position

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.1
Potential payout: $63.39
Potential profit: $63.29
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.9

Yes position

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $42-$49 in June?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.09
Potential payout: $58.6
Potential profit: $58.51
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$0.91

Yes position

Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 1.6%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $47.62
Potential profit: $46.88
Multiplier: 64.52x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Xi Jinping out by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.02
Potential payout: $45.45
Potential profit: $45.43
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$0.98

Yes position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $2.37
Potential payout: $43.48
Potential profit: $41.11
Multiplier: 18.35x
User PnL: -$7.63

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2026?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $1.26
Potential payout: $28.31
Potential profit: $27.05
Multiplier: 22.47x
User PnL: $0.26

Yes position

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.05
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.95
Multiplier: 400.00x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Implied probability: 2.4%
Current value: $0.34
Potential payout: $14.29
Potential profit: $13.95
Multiplier: 42.55x
User PnL: -$0.66

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026?

Implied probability: 5.5%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $13.43
Potential profit: $12.69
Multiplier: 18.18x
User PnL: -$0.26

Yes position

Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026?

Implied probability: 3.5%
Current value: $0.45
Potential payout: $12.99
Potential profit: $12.54
Multiplier: 28.99x
User PnL: -$0.55

Yes position

Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026?

Ends Jan 10, 2026

Implied probability: 1.7%
Current value: $0.18
Potential payout: $10.53
Potential profit: $10.35
Multiplier: 58.82x
User PnL: -$0.82

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.62K

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $752.35

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of January?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $375.73

Yes position

Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?

Ends Feb 8, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $115.85

Yes position

Will Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?

Ends Feb 18, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $65

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $45.79

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30.33

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $21.67

Yes position

Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $15.41

No position

Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during January press conference?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $14.65

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Multiplier: 1000.00x
User PnL: $6.62

Yes position

Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $5.54

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.75

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $4.36

Yes position

Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Ends Nov 7, 2028

Implied probability: 0.9%
Multiplier: 117.65x
User PnL: $4

Yes position

Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: $3.58

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.95

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET

Ends Apr 11, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.45

Yes position

Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.16

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $2.08

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $1.58

No position

Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during January press conference?

Ends Jan 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.56

Up position

Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.61

Yes position

Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited?