Polymarket Trader

circuscircus

0xebfd5a54b725141085dff6a70dcc3526320fdd70

Public profile Partial data Delayed section

Open value: $466.22
Realized PnL: $4.71K
Win rate: 100%
Open positions: 13
Closed positions: 24
Markets traded: Unavailable

Current Predictions

Open positions

Yes position

Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $3.02K
Potential profit: $3.02K
User PnL: -$154.02

Yes position

Will England win on 2026-07-15?

Ends Jul 15, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $2K
Potential profit: $2K
User PnL: -$5

No position

Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.06K
Potential profit: $1.06K
User PnL: -$199.8

Yes position

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?

Ends Dec 31, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $1.02K
Potential profit: $1.02K
User PnL: -$17.82

Yes position

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 12.5%
Current value: $75
Potential payout: $600
Potential profit: $525
Multiplier: 8.00x
User PnL: -$37

No position

Cambria FDV above $30M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 61.5%
Current value: $300.38
Potential payout: $488.43
Potential profit: $188.04
Multiplier: 1.63x
User PnL: $41.52

Yes position

Will JD Vance say "Radical Left" on the Will Cain Show?

Ends Apr 29, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $429.25
Potential profit: $429.25
User PnL: -$20.58

Yes position

Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw?

Ends Jun 16, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $303.23
Potential profit: $303.23
User PnL: -$3.39

No position

Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $300
Potential profit: $300
User PnL: -$35.4

Yes position

Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 2.8%
Current value: $6.84
Potential payout: $244.3
Potential profit: $237.46
Multiplier: 35.71x
User PnL: $0.67

No position

Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $217.43
Potential profit: $217.43
User PnL: -$81.31

No position

Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?

Ends Aug 31, 2026

Implied probability: 42%
Current value: $84
Potential payout: $200
Potential profit: $116
Multiplier: 2.38x
User PnL: -$39

Down position

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Ends Jul 6, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $7.81
Potential profit: $7.81
User PnL: -$5

Resolved Context

Closed positions

No position

Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $1.13K

No position

Lighter Airdrop on December 29?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $872.86

No position

Zama FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $507.09

No position

Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $358.32

No position

Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $339.99

3DMAX position

Counter-Strike: MIBR vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs

Ends Apr 9, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $286.85

Arizona Wildcats position

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $187.54

No position

Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?

Ends Jan 1, 1970

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $156.06

Connecticut Huskies position

Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils

Ends Mar 29, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $121.17

Yes position

Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 13.1%
Multiplier: 7.63x
User PnL: $85.8

No position

Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $82.81

Natus Vincere position

Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Playoffs

Ends Mar 28, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $60.43

Michigan Wolverines position

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines

Ends Mar 27, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $55

Yes position

Lighter Airdrop on December 31?

Ends Dec 31, 2025

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $54.55

No position

Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2027

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $51.35

Purdue Boilermakers position

Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Ends Mar 22, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.9

MIBR position

Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage

Ends Apr 6, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $49.33

Yes position

Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?

Ends Apr 12, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $48.75

Yes position

Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02?

Ends Mar 2, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $47

No position

Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?

Ends Jan 1, 2028

Implied probability: 41%
Multiplier: 2.44x
User PnL: $35

Yes position

Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?

Ends Apr 4, 2026

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: $33.64

Yes position

Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23?

Ends Feb 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $33.6

Michigan State Spartans position

Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans

Ends Mar 21, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $30

Yes position

DC Airport Ground Stop lifted today?

Ends Mar 13, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $28.28

Trades

Recent trades

Latest visible trades for this Polymarket trader.

Will England win on 2026-07-15?

Yes 0.3% 2,000 shares
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET

Down 64% 7.81 shares
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05? AND Will France win on 2026-07-04? AND Will Mexico vs. England end in a draw?

14.7% 165.45 shares
Will Cătălin Predoiu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?

Yes 3.1% 44.3 shares
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?

15.3% 327.53 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?

Yes 1.8% 517.99 shares
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?

Yes 1.7% 500 shares
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

GamerLegion 46% 300 shares
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

GamerLegion 37% 300 shares
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2

B8 11% 300 shares
Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch?

No 37% 61.58 shares
Meek Mill gets Y Combinator funding by June 30?

Yes 3.2% 14.56 shares