4GRF

Implied probability: 25.5%
Current value: $5.82
Potential payout: $22.83
Potential profit: $17.01
Multiplier: 3.92x
User PnL: $1.31

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $22.77
Potential profit: $22.77
User PnL: -$2.2

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 22%
Current value: $4.92
Potential payout: $22.35
Potential profit: $17.43
Multiplier: 4.55x
User PnL: -$0.07

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $22.14
Potential profit: $22.13
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$6.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 22.2%
Current value: $4.6
Potential payout: $20.7
Potential profit: $16.1
Multiplier: 4.50x
User PnL: $0.77

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20.68
Potential profit: $20.67
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.88

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 53.9%
Current value: $10.92
Potential payout: $20.28
Potential profit: $9.36
Multiplier: 1.86x
User PnL: $5.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.39

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 43%
Current value: $8.6
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $11.4
Multiplier: 2.33x
User PnL: -$0.95

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 19%
Current value: $3.8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $16.2
Multiplier: 5.26x
User PnL: -$1.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$2.49

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 65.5%
Current value: $13.1
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $6.9
Multiplier: 1.53x
User PnL: $2.7

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.99
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$8.44

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 48.5%
Current value: $9.7
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $10.3
Multiplier: 2.06x
User PnL: $0.8

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 6.1%
Current value: $1.21
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.79
Multiplier: 16.53x
User PnL: -$1.29

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.2%
Current value: $0.03
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.97
Multiplier: 666.67x
User PnL: -$4.72

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 39.5%
Current value: $7.9
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $12.1
Multiplier: 2.53x
User PnL: $1.65

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 9%
Current value: $1.8
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $18.2
Multiplier: 11.11x
User PnL: -$2.1

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 0.3%
Current value: $0.06
Potential payout: $20
Potential profit: $19.94
Multiplier: 333.33x
User PnL: -$1.34

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $18.76
Potential profit: $18.75
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.55

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $17.94
Potential profit: $17.93
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$4.05

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
Current value: $0
Potential payout: $17.75
Potential profit: $17.75
User PnL: -$9.85

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 24?

Implied probability: 0.1%
Current value: $0.01
Potential payout: $17.22
Potential profit: $17.21
Multiplier: 2000.00x
User PnL: -$3.41

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 25?

Implied probability: 4.5%
Current value: $0.74
Potential payout: $16.55
Potential profit: $15.8
Multiplier: 22.22x
User PnL: -$1.14

Resolved Context

Closed positions

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or below on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $16.19

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or below on June 23?

Ends Jun 23, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $13.85

No position

Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?

Ends Jan 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0.05

No position

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Ends Dec 31, 2026

Implied probability: 94.3%
Multiplier: 1.06x
User PnL: $0.02

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: $0

No position

Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.03

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.03

No position

Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League?

Ends May 31, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$0.05

Yes position

Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 1%
Multiplier: 105.26x
User PnL: -$0.16

Yes position

Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.18

Yes position

Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.7%
Multiplier: 153.85x
User PnL: -$0.2

Yes position

Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 0.8%
Multiplier: 133.33x
User PnL: -$0.21

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.3

No position

Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.4%
User PnL: -$0.32

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.51

Yes position

Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24?

Implied probability: 0%
User PnL: -$0.7

No position

Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: -$0.91

No position

Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.1%
User PnL: -$0.92

No position

Will Levante win the 2025–26 La Liga?

Ends May 30, 2026

Implied probability: 100%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

Implied probability: 99.3%
User PnL: -$1

No position

Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?